Luke’s Consciousness from Night 1 of the Debates

My thoughts… 

Instead of 2 nights of 10 candidates, they should move to 4 nights of 5 candidates. Too many candidates on one stage muddles the message and it feels more like a spelling bee or an 80s dating show. People committed to watching two nights will watch four. 

Single-payer is the dividing line for the party and candidates. Removing the option for private policies is the sticking point.

Elizabeth Warren does not want to be labeled as raising taxes on the middle-class by supporting Medicare for All, even though the sponsor, Bernie Sanders, says it will require an increase in taxes. 

Kudos to Jake Tapper for making each candidate answer about raising middle-class taxes. 

Beto is trying the Goldilocks approach, but it appears he is provoking both sides instead of uniting them.

Bernie has the healthcare debate cornered in this debate. He will say what others won’t and it shows he is the most comfortable saying it.

Delaney has the policy that is most likely to get through both Houses of Congress, but he is likely to become the Dems John Kasich – possible crossover support, but will not find a receptive audience in a segmented primary. 

The red-state/blue-state Dems divide when it comes to public health care for illegal immigrants. Red-state Dems have had to appeal to Trump-leaning voters, and they view Trump’s landmines very differently. 

Steve Bullock is extremely uncomfortable answering questions about gun violence. Red-state Dems do NOT want to answer questions about guns and are hiding behind changing issues. 

Based on the answers provided on climate change, immigration, and health care, President Obama is a borderline blue dog Democrat. 

These candidates throw out the term ‘trillions’ like Oprah with new cars. 

Tim Ryan, Bullock, Hickenlooper, and Delaney are running for the Hillary 2008 voters, who turned to Trump. Bernie, Warren, Buttigieg, and Beto are running for the Obama 2008 voters. It’s Midwest blue-collar working-class union voters versus coastal cosmopolitan upscale liberals. 

Buttigieg is what Beto was supposed to be. Beto had the perfect foil in Ted Cruz, he doesn’t have that luxury in a large primary. 

Watching an entirely White stage debate reparations was interesting because most of the candidates were not comfortable discussing it. 

Delaney embraced TPP! I never expected to see a presidential candidate do that, especially since Trump opposes it too. Delaney has fully embraced the DLC mantle, but that group has not been relevant for more than a decade. He has potential to get Never-Trump former Republicans. 

It will be interesting to see how effective Warren, Sanders, and Biden will be able to combat the potential issue of ageism. 

Warren and Sanders elevated themselves from the rest of the stage when it comes to seizing the progressive mantle. They need to face Biden in the next debate. Delaney has unabashedly seized the moderate mantle. It will get him new donors, but being the moderate candidate has too low of a ceiling to win. Klobuchar reminds me of another former MN presidential candidate, Tim Pawlenty. Solid resume, but in a giant field, she won’t have the dedicated support to make a dent. Beto won’t make it to the Iowa caucus. Buttigieg is a wildcard. He has potential, but he doesn’t have the stage presence Warren or Sanders command. 

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