The Race for the South

2018 saw a new wave of Democratic candidates coming out of southern states. Alabama ushered in a surprise wave of excitement at the end of 2017 with the special election of U.S. Senator Doug Jones. However, that Alabama excitement did not spread into southern states for the 2018 midterms. States like Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Mississippi and Florida all had big races at the U.S. Senate or gubernatorial levels. The top tickets Democrats in those states lost.

Some lost by small margins while others were a gap large enough to consider it a landslide.  

Candidates like Stacy Abrams of Georgia and Beto O’Rouke of Texas tapped into new voters through the excitement surrounding their campaigns, but ultimately failed to secure the victory.  In Abrams case, voter suppression played a major role. As the first African American female to secure the Democratic nomination for governor – ever – she fought against the state’s Republican Secretary of State, Brian Kemp, who refused to resign even as he administered over the electoral process while running competing against Abrams in the race.

O’Rouke narrowly lost – 48.3% to 50.9% – to Republican incumbent Ted Cruz who saw his lead tightening closer to election day. Having served as the congressman for Texas’ 16th district, O’Rouke ran a campaign that didn’t rely on the traditional polling to advise him.  He pledged not to accept PAC contributions and raised nearly $2 million in the first three months through small donations.

Florida also held a gubernatorial election where Democratic nominee Andrew Gillum fought hard against the Republican nominee Ron DeSantis, falling by less than a percentage point.  Gillum was the first Black nominee for governor in the state of Florida in a racially tinged campaign. And down in Tennessee and Mississippi, U.S. Senate races were top ticket competitive races, but both Democratic nominees lost to their respective Republican candidates.

So, what happened? Voters were energized by the Democratic slate, but failed short to secure the top ticket seats. Conversely, these competitive races did usher in a new wave of Democratic talent for down ticket races. In Texas, Republican judges lost control of the Third Court of Appeals and the Fifth Court of Appeals.  In Tennessee, a wave of twenty African-American women were elected to local and state seats in Shelby County. Alabama had 55 women run for state-level offices. Gun violence advocate, Lucy McBath, won her congressional seat in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District.

While the larger races did not turn out how Democratic voters in the respective states might have hoped, they did help bring change in other down-ballot races and energize new voters. 2019 is here and now campaign teams are gearing up for 2020. Looking to the past, candidates can only hope for a better future. 

The Turkey Is Almost Done

Democrats were hoping for a “blue wave” in this weeks Midterms elections. Though the “blue wave” failed to make shore for nationally followed races such as Beto in Texas, he lost by the thinnest of margin which is encouraging by any standard. The other nationally followed races for Governor in both Georgia and Florida are still too close to call and on the verge of a runoff election. Some Democrats were looking for more than a wave, rather a Tsunami. Polls regarding the approval of the Trump administration have been historically low, and the midterm elections were seen as the chance for said Democratic wave to begin the drowning of Trump’s influence through Congress, which would build momentum for a hopeful defeat of Trump in 2020. Though the wave wasn’t a big enough splash in certain places, the blue wave did swallow up enough seats to take over the House of Representatives.

So a Tsunami didn’t happen, but historic waves did make landfall, and the waves were dominated by women. Surfing to shore were the following:

Two Muslim women to Congress, both equally being the first to do so.

The first Native American woman to Congress…

The first lesbian mother to Congress… 

The youngest woman ever elected to Congress… 

The first Black woman ever elected as the Attorney General of New York… 

Also, the first every openly gay man was elected Governor of Colorado.

In my opinion, that’s a splash to be proud of. 

In addition to people, major progress was made nationwide regarding policies. Marijuana is now legal in Michigan, and medically legal in Utah and Missouri. The unsung victory from the midterm elections was without question Amendment 4 passing in Florida, which now grants voting rights to nearly 1.5 million Floridians who were former felons. (I’ll stress that importance in a little bit.) 

Twenty years ago (1998), there was no such thing as legalized Marijuana, and gay marriage was still illegal! We now have an openly gay Governor and legal Marijuana of any usage in ten states. That’s important.

Here in Texas, Hillary Clinton lost by 9% to Trump in the 2016 Presidential election. Two years later, Beto O’ Rourke lost by less than 3% to the well-funded incumbent in Republican Senator Ted Cruz (in the largest red state in the country). The fact that Beto realistically only had a punchers chance against Cruz and almost come away with a victory, is a victory. Here’s why the “moral victories” in Texas are a sign of possible change. For Republicans, big states in which they depend on like Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, can have blue tendencies. Not Texas. Texas is counted on to hold down the GOP fort, due to its 38 electoral votes, second to only California’s 55. The next pure red states with as many electoral votes are Georgia with 16, North Carolina with 15, and Arizona, Indiana, Tennessee each with 11. I think it’s important to note that the unaspiring candidate in Hillary Clinton only lost by nine points in Texas with very little effort in campaigning, and Beto who actually campaigned barely lost. Such improvement in only two years should awaken the Democrat brass to start putting more money and effort into Texas for maybe not a blue wave, but a good ole Texas blue twister to stir things up. 

The way Andrew Gillum destroyed his Republican opponent Ron DeSantis, sparred with Trump via twitter, performed extremely well in the gubernatorial debates, and considering the changes in demographics… Gillium should have won by double digits. Gillum is down by less than .5 percent, which means they’re likely headed towards a recount. Is it not a fair assumption that the 1.5 million formerly convicted felons who just had their voting rights restored could’ve helped him out? 

I know Democrats and Progressives didn’t win every seat they wanted to; however, the numbers are increasing in the right direction in this nation. It’s like hearing “still not done” being yelled by grandma in the kitchen on Thanksgiving regarding the Turkey and her famous side dishes you’ve been patiently waiting for all day. The food isn’t done but you can smell how close it is. You can even see the plates coming out the cabinet. And that’s okay, long as you stay in your chair and don’t get up. No one can take your spot and you’ll be sure to get first dibs on whatever you. 

Returning to Work

The highly anticipated midterms are over… Not necessarily a “blue wave” but enough Democrats won to reclaim the House. So now the Dems can call for investigations, subpoenas, etc. We’re not sure how much success they’ll have, but if nothing else it’ll add to the circus that Washington has now become. 

If you’re a Black American, regardless of where you reside, you were hopeful Gillum and Abrams would win their Florida and Georgia Gov races respectfully. Let’s be honest, you were probably more than hopeful. You might’ve donated to their campaigns, at the very least your eyes were probably glued to CNN or MSNBC as they reported and updated the numbers. 

But while we didn’t want to admit it, the writing was on the wall when the coverage for these two big races began to fade and focus was redirected to other less historic or risky races. Gillum jumped to a lead, but Florida is Florida, and once the panhandle numbers came it was a done deal. Abrams on the other hand never appeared to have a shot. Her opponent jumped out to a big lead and held on. 

All that support, time, energy, “sweat equity,” registering new voters, younger voters, etc… wasted. Minorities including Black Americans have given a lot to this country. If Democrats can’t win elections with great candidates against opponents who blatantly traffic in racism and bigotry, then perhaps Dems aren’t the answer or the party for minorities? Or perhaps a drastic shift in leadership is the only way to get over this hump? 

Across this country, millions of Black Americans and minorities are mustering up the strength to return to mostly all-White offices and workplaces (today and the rest of the week) having suffered another moral and legislative defeat that hits them in every way possible. Where does that strength come from? Where are the safe places needed to exchange thoughts, vent, and move on? Trying to do so… after an 8-10 hour workday… year after year… election after election… can’t be healthy. 

Advice… don’t engage in political discussion, don’t take the everyday frustrations that come with any job personal, and stay close to family and friends who either know your pain, can relate, or have exemplified empathy. 

Dems should take a hard look at how they decide to campaign and strategize moving forward. Taking the “high road” sounds great, when you win. But they lost, two devastating and deflating losses. In both Florida and Georgia, their opponents made it about race. Not just race, but nasty racism… whether it was “monkey this up” or repeat overtly racist robocalls, digs at their education and fitness for office, Republicans in Florida and Georgia made up their mind that they were gonna hit low, hit hard, and hit often. That’s exactly what they did, and it carried them to victory. 

Gillum, Abrams, and Dems collectively did the exact opposite. They stayed high, and once again, to no avail. Is the solution to go just as low, probably not. But when you run two highly qualified charismatic candidates in Gillum and Abrams, and still lose, you should probably take a hard look at your playbook, strategy, and party leadership. 

Change is never easy, but it is inevitable. Since Dems expect or count Black Americans and minorities in their tent, they need to start making changes and winning the games/elections they should win, because something tells me this younger generation won’t be as patient and understanding as those that came before them.