Syria Will Be Part of Trump’s Legacy – But History’s Judgement Is Still Unclear

by with 2 Comments FeaturedGlobalPolitics

The president’s pullout of Syria is essentially an effort to force an end not only to our engagement in the area, but also to the basic credibility of the neoconservative worldview- as well as efforts in the future to shape global democracy and influence world order. There are plenty of Republicans who see this approach as heresy, and there are plenty of Democrats and media outlets who relish the blood-on-blood infighting to come (and who will strangely express their outrage at a decision they would have lauded once merely because the opposite of the administration’s policy is their policy), but the reality is much more nuanced.

On the surface, the president’s motivation is driven by polling. Our commander in chief is a populist at his core- not an idealist.  Most Americans (many in both parties) don’t favor extending the war in Syria. This is quite simply because we aren’t able to do what it takes to win. Assad’s forces are backed by Russia; there’s no way to build real stability in the region without a heavier hand than we are willing to take or through regime change, and there seems to be no way to force regime change short of open war with Russia. Further, as China increasingly begins to flex in the pacific and begins to highlight our “meddling in the affairs of others” -including Syria- as China launches their own massive campaign for development, seeking access to the natural resources of sub-Saharan Africa, the president is mindful that it’s from China where we face the greatest long term security threat, and it’s China who benefits most from our distraction to a protracted entanglement with Syria and Russia. Further, while the timing of Iran was the president’s doing, it’s also clear that they are a much greater threat to global security in the near term. Our security interest in Syria is that someone accountable to the UN controls and regulates the area- whether it be Turkey or the US, either will make certain that it isn’t ISIS. We really can only do so much.

But that’s only part of the story. Turkey’s interest in Syria isn’t focused first on restoring peace to Syrians. The Kurdish forces we have used since the beginning of the war in Iraq have fought with us because they are a people without a land. Spread throughout Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria, this proud, ethnic population descended of Saladin is at odds with each of those nations as they seek to restore some autonomy. They have been capable allies because they have more than 1,000 years of history fighting for their own survival. Walking away from them when we are done will be a public betrayal that the Chinese and Russians will hold up as the true nature of “American Imperialism.” They will say that Americans come with high ideals, but leave when it’s no longer convenient. To Bush-era neoconservatives, it’s unthinkable; to Trump and his “America First” agenda, it’s a way to cross the bridge back from nation-building and burn it behind him.

In the long term, this may be the better move. The people of Vietnam, the people of Iraq, and increasingly the people of Afghanistan have come to realize that Americans come and Americans go. If we fool no one, and if we do really lack the resolve (and quite possibly the ability) to build regimes and promote democracy in the aftermath of conflict, then it is possible that the sooner we go the better. This may also help us usher in a day when America accepts that it is no longer the sole global hegemon and must share global military and economic influence with both China and Russia once again. If pulling back now gives them space we would have needed to cede eventually through direct conflict, it may increase stability in the long term also.

But in the short term, it’s a lot of bad taste. To those who can’t bear to see America as anything but a beacon of light that can dictate the ways of the world, it looks like a retreat. To those focused first on human rights, it’s a turnover of power to another heavy-handed imperial force that will bring another wave of increased violence before it can hope to bring local stability. While the president’s motivation may be no deeper than extending a political olive branch to a growing, centrist plurality of the American public focused on their own economy, anxious to make a trade deal in China and not willing to subsidize stability of the Kurdish population (so long as there’s someone on the ground containing ISIS), if America is a truly is a shrinking power, in 50 years this may be seen as a thoughtful and pragmatic preservation of resources. 

Similar Read: The Trump Doctrine: What Ukraine Says About Trump’s Foreign Policy

Syria, the Office Potluck of International Relations

by with One Comment Uncategorized

“When you’re invited to the holiday or general office potluck, there’s a natural reluctance to jump right in and grab a plate. The United States engagement with the Syrian Civil War is no different. The reluctance to intervene should be maintained for as long as possible.” 

There’s a wide range of opinions on the current Syrian Civil War. I can bet dollars to doughnuts, no one who isn’t in Syria or Syrian has a true clue on what they’re talking about. That goes from the President of the United States to the AmandaRyan Facebook page of your high school classmate and husband who post their very narrow suburbs of Atlanta point of view of the conflict. The Syrian conflict is much more layered than seeing awful video clips of children being rushed to hospitals, and the knee jerk reaction post of the AmandaRyan account, stating, “Why don’t we do something?!”

Speaking of AmandaRyan, one of them thought it would be a good idea, instead of getting catered food, for the office to have a potluck. Potlucks are a hairline above spaghetti night at vacation bible school. And no, I’m not a foodie or food snob, I just don’t like bad food and neither does my stomach. And potlucks produce nothing but questionable looking and even more questionable tasting food. Why? Cause people can’t cook, just that simple. Some people have no business dabbling in the world of cuisine for they don’t know what they’re doing. They prepare and cook based on what they think should go into a recipe, or worse based on how they think it should taste. The result is crockpots full of boiling goo that’s supposed to be jambalaya. No, thank you.

Back to Syria.

Syria is in a sense a potluck. For starters most don’t even know where Syria is, they don’t understand the variables involved in the Syrian war, and they don’t understand why. Yes, in a simplistic way the Syrian war is between the government of Bashar Al-Assad vs rebellious forces vs a group who calls itself the Islamic State. The group was said, by then candidate Trump, to have been co-founded by Hillary Clinton and President Obama. The denouncement Trump gave is equal to someone saying, by me not liking the Backstreet Boys, it led to the creation of One Direction, crazy! Anyway, there’s three legitimate groups fighting. None of them are factions in which the United States should side with. None have pure intentions in their actions – meaning neither of the factions are fighting to establish a wholesome, non-oppressive, democratic society. No, all sides are fighting to control Syria the way they see fit, and we simply don’t know enough to understand or decide which fit is best. Which is bad.

Potlucks are generally bad for their cuisines made to the liking of a specific individuals. Unlike restaurants or people who cooked something so good all types of people request it from them, the United States should never get involved in a foreign affair in which the clear purpose and clear reasons is not understood by both the United States and the people we’re supposed to help. Simply go down the list of every bad American intervention and I don’t have to explain myself.

For a potluck, the best plan of action to avoid eating and being labeled antisocial is to simply go into the break room to show you’re aware and your presence will be noted. However, at no point are you getting a plate. The United States has already made its presence known regarding the Syrian conflict, and there’s no need to do more. Syria may look like jambalaya and we know how to get down on some jambalaya, but in actuality it’s a cold and unseasoned minestrone soup.