2016 Is About To Happen Again

by with 2 Comments FeaturedPolitics

I heard over and over from highly educated, liberal professionals after the 2016 election that some mistake had happened. “The election was stolen.”  The electoral college had somehow disrupted our normal process (spoiler: it wasn’t any different)…  “The Trump campaign enlisted Russian government support.” And then afterward we all needed to read Hillbilly Elegy to understand how to kindly condescend to the plight of the misinformed blue-collar rust belt that had erred and turned away from Democrats and sided with President Trump. At the time I was moving back and forth between NYC colleagues who’d secured a seat at Hillary’s victory party in Manhattan and neighbors in new England who’d sold their home early to facilitate their quick nomination through the Senate to take their new place in the administration “with her.” They sat down on election night ready to watch the show, and they were shocked at the show they saw. They never saw it coming.  And it’s happening again… and again they don’t see it coming.

I think they saw a glimmer of it before the COVID-19 crisis locked them all in their homes? But since then, the tone has changed. They’re locked in their homes reading their favorite websites and the articles their phone algorithms say they’ll like- and all of those sources tell them that Donald Trump’s performance through COVID-19… all the polls being conducted… point to a president losing ground heading into election season.

Many in this group don’t understand the monster they’ve created in their media bubble. In 1980 (the year CNN was founded) there were 3 news networks. To be viable, network news needed both liberals and conservatives, and the news was 30 minutes 3 times a day stuck between Brady Bunch reruns and The Jeffersons. You couldn’t serve people what they wanted with the context they wanted- so you gave them straight, complete facts with a straight face and let them apply their own context.  Now media is fragmented to where a 3% market share is huge, and straight shooting is dead. Even the best journalists quit trying to challenge us. They serve us what we want by arranging and selecting facts and applying context to make stories what we wish to see in them, and our tech knows what media will excite us.  Most of what’s “mainstream media” is the slice that serves the prime consumer: 25-40 years old, professional, urban, liberal-leaning, with substantial discretionary income. So now if you’re an educated professional, working for a large company in a white-collar job… these days you log in from home, work on zoom, order from Amazon. It’s annoying, but life is working. And if you look at the media that targets you, the biggest problem out there right now are those that want to reopen too quickly.

If you’re a small business owner, a self-employed tradesman, a wage earner or any sort of gig worker (ie the people Biden needs to win back from the president to win this time), three months of this has been hell. If you had savings, it’s gone. You can’t work, your children are home with you complicating work even more. Stress is elevated; money is scarce, and even if the $600 a month in federal assistance works for now, the uncertainty of what’s to come is crushing. Even as the signs are there, the articles pushed back to the mainstream consumer talk about elevated levels in “black and brown communities” that need “understanding and voice.” That’s true – but what those also are are the communities of people that still need to head out in the world every day to work. They are still getting sick because they’re still out there, and having been out in it since the start, they’re not nearly as scared of the virus as they are of losing their livelihood. Further, having not been scared by the world they continue to toil in all day, they continue to visit their friends and family more, and quietly dismiss you when you try to shame them. They’re over it. And they’re turning on Democrats again, and on the rare occasions when they speak up, they’re again facing condescension (here’s looking at you, Governor Whitmer). Those aren’t all MAGAs out there; it’s also your blue-collar swings.

Also, polls now aren’t really polls. For years, exit polls have needed rebasing because Republicans are less likely to respond – a fact that was exacerbated in the 2016 election when Trump voters began to feel that announcing loudly that you expect to vote for Donald Trump could cause indignation from someone around them and began to not state (or misstate) their intentions. With tensions running high in 2016 the weight-adjusted polls turned out to be not weight adjusted enough. Tensions are higher now. Also, currently most polls being completed are online polls by your favorite news sources. You can’t walk down the street, get in someone’s space and get a good poll sample in-person anymore. With online being the only way that works, it turns out (as an example), that most people that respond to a Huffington Post poll are still voting for Biden (although less than you might expect).

And once again, there’s a candidate who isn’t exactly rising to the occasion.  Biden has emerged twice since being named the presumed party nominee- once for a late and horribly jumbled explanation of Tara Reade’s accusations, and another botched interview with Charlamagne Tha God – both of which were designed and curated by campaign aides to be well-choreographed softballs and neither of which won him a voter he hadn’t had already. Conversely, if either interview had any effect at all, it decreased voter excitement which (according to Charlamagne Tha God himself) is likely to depress voter roles. Trump raised $212MM this quarter – a clip he’s been maintaining steadily since he started his re-election fund the day of his swearing in.  Biden raised only $60MM in hard money in April – despite his new status as the Democrats’ ordained winner. The president has a motivated base, is organized, and has a turnout plan that was tested in dry runs during the early primaries (and generated unprecedented primary turnouts for an incumbent presidential primary). Sitting in his basement without a formal role in the government, Biden needs to create viral moments that will excite women, minorities and wage earners, and so far his performance seems likely to depress turnouts for all three.

And it’s happening again. This time… just don’t be so surprised.

Similar Read: Mainstream Media or “Fake News”?

The Conservative Argument AGAINST Trump’s Border Wall

by with 5 Comments FeaturedPolitics

One of the biggest stories of 2019… 

There is no political topic that captures the imagination of today’s voter like Trump’s proposed border wall.  This issue encapsulates national security, humanitarian, economic concerns, and it exploits the hyperpolarization of the rank and file members of both political parties. This issue is THE reason for the longest government shutdown in US history, and at the time of this writing, there is no compromise in sight. In this political stalemate, the only way to move the needle is to look deeper into the issue to see what the actual issue is, and if the taken positions are consistent with the fundamental principles of their ideology and party affiliation. As a lifelong Republican with an engineering background, after crunching the numbers and taking into perspective the number of diversions from bedrock conservative ideals, this border wall and the process it includes is the antithesis of sound conservative policy. The proposed wall is not fiscally responsible, infringes on private property rights through eminent domain, and does not significantly improve national security.

Using my professional background, and my background in engineering costs, I identified these significant expenses: 1. Property value of acquired land… 2. Legal fees for obtaining land through eminent domain… 3. Material costs for a 25 ft steel wall… 4. 2 ft foundation… 5. Labor costs… 6. Permitting fees… 7… Installation of service road for construction, maintenance, and transportation of border patrol vehicles and equipment… 8. Engineering fees, and… 9. Miscellaneous fees and expenses. While there are other expenses like water rights for farmers along the Rio Grande River, and potential litigation issues from a treaty with Mexico regarding these water rights, I am keeping my focus on these items because the process time and costs are significant.

  1. Property Values: Most land along the border is private property. I will assume 75% of the land is private property, a cost of $3,000 per acre (value is likely higher, but once land is condemned for seizure, the value drops significantly), and a 150 ft-wide right-of-way to hold the wall, service road, and any other facilities. Roadway right-of-way varies on size of the road. Typically, it is in the 60-80’ range (300+ for interstates and major highways), but since there will be utility and drainage installations in this right-of-way in lieu of additional easements, I am combining it into one. Total Cost = $75 billion. Total Time to Acquire = 12-18 months to notify property owner & 3-10 years to resolve through federal courts.
  2. Legal fees: This is roughly a third of the total property value based on other federal eminent domain cases. Total Cost = $25 billion. Time to Resolve = 3-10 years.
  3. Material Costs for 25 ft steel wall: Trump has signaled he is willing to compromise from concrete to steel. Assuming the wall height is 25 feet and a unit cost of $7/SF, the Total Cost = $2 billion. Time to Build = 125 miles/year or 14 years.
  4. Foundation Costs for a 2 ft foundation: Assuming a foundation height of 2 ft (typical for a structure of this height) and a unit cost of $10/SF, the Total Cost = $170 million. 
  5. Labor Costs: Labor costs tend to be 40-60% of total expense when combined with materials. Total Cost = $2 billion. 
  6. Permitting Fees: Permitting expenses tend to be 2-3% of total construction costs, depending on location. Permit fees within city limits could be significantly higher because fees are likely based on the total value of the property’s or structure’s value, but for this exercise, we will keep it to materials and labor costs. Total Cost = $100 million. 
  7. Service Road Installation: Service roadways will need to be installed to transport contractors and materials to install the wall. These roadways will be used by maintenance crews as well as transportation means for border patrol agents on duty. Typical costs for 2 lane roads is $3 million per mile. Total cost = $5 billion.
  8. Engineering Fees: typical 2.5-3% of total costs, including property acquisitions. Total cost = $3 billion. 
  9. Miscellaneous fees: On most engineering cost estimates, there is a 10% contingency item that covers additional engineering fees, change order requests, and any other expenses that are anticipated, but the final cost is not known. Total Cost = $10 billion.

When you include a 10% contingency fee to account for miscellaneous or unforeseen expenses, which is custom in most engineering cost estimates, the total cost for this wall, assuming a best-case scenario, is in the $120-125 billion range with a likely completion date in 2029. Trump’s request for $5.7 billion is a small down payment on a costly construction project.

The most expensive part of this endeavor will be the seizure of privately-owned lands through eminent domain. Will Hurd, a former CIA security officer and Congressman of the district with the longest stretch of border in the country, stated there are approximately 1,000 private property owners with land along the border in Texas alone. These properties have been owned by families for multiple generations that will be forcibly taken from them by the federal government at a rate the government arbitrarily sets against their wishes. Historically, eminent domain, particularly the excessive use of it, has been a galvanizing issue for Conservatives. Taking one’s property against their will, particularly after the 2005 Kelo vs City of New London Supreme Court Case, prompted state legislatures in red states to pass legislation to reign in or outright prohibit the use of eminent domain in all or rare cases. The number of potential court cases that will occur could effectively shut down federal courts in District 5 (Texas), 9 (Arizona and California) and 10 (New Mexico).

The central argument made for the wall is the impact it will have on national security. This structure is supposed to make significant reductions in the number of illegal immigrants in our country. This week, the Center for Migration Studies released a study analyzing the numbers reported by the federal government and found that 62% of illegal immigrants are people who came here legally and overstayed their temporary or student visas. This has been the trend for the past seven years. Most illegal crossings occur at busy checkpoints or ports, not in isolated locations because there are not means of transportation available. Cartels have perfected the art of smuggling through these checkpoints and have made them a focus of their operations. They have also built numerous tunnels under the border that a wall would not impede. This means the people our national security departments are most concerned about will not be impacted by this wall. Creating the illusion of security is not the same as actual security.

This wall requires supporters to embrace a fiscally irresponsible purchase and revoke their bedrock defense of private property rights for a physical structure that has negligible benefit for national security. Wall supporters might have other, some might say sinister, reasons for supporting this issue, but it is not a conservative one.

This article was originally published on 22 January 2019.

Similar Read: The Delicate Art of Compromise

 

My Fellow Republicans, We Need to (Finally) Have This Talk

by with 4 Comments CultureFeatured

Dear Fellow Republicans,

This is not something I want to do. I’ve hinted about this for years, but my pleas have fallen on deaf ears. This is not something pleasant to discuss, but it is long overdue. I am not doing this because I feel pressure to please ‘the other side’, it is because my faith has convicted me to speak out, and when you feel the Holy Spirit leading you, this message will reach the people it needs to reach.

For too long, we have allowed a darkness to linger in our party. During the early Bush (43) years, we ignored it. In fact, most of our party leaders tacitly confronted it. Fueled by a growing evangelical movement that was less partisan and more racially diverse, there was a movement in the Republican Party to build upon the gains made in previous elections with minority communities, especially the Latino community. George W Bush rode this momentum to two terms by capturing Hispanic-heavy states like Texas, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Florida, and Nevada. Then something changed, and it opened the door to something that spread like wildfire and has a chokehold on us at this hour. 

It started with several protests that lead to the defeat of Bush’s comprehensive immigration reform. Anxiety about border security was stoked daily by national talk radio hosts and personalities like Sean Hannity and Mark Levin. A so-called conservative uprising, fueled by resentment to millions of people who were here illegally, seized control of the party and set the table for something far, far worse. Opportunistic political candidates leaped at the chance to further stoke this anger for electoral success.

Dan Patrick was a provocative state Senator from the Houston area. He owned a talk radio station, and he had a talk show on the channel. Perhaps the most infamous event his show is remembered for is getting a vasectomy on his live show. In 2014, he challenged the sitting Lieutenant Governor, David Dewhurst, and two other statewide elected officials in the GOP primary. His candidacy, fueled by Tea Party-affiliated groups like Empower Texas, was built upon one slogan, “Stop the Invasion!” He ran ads of people with darker skin climbing over a fence to further stoke the smoldering embers, and by the time the TXGOP convention came around, he was received like a rock star, completely overshadowing every other speaker. 

One year later, another media personality with his own show used the same template and rode it to the GOP nomination and the White House. He took the foundation that Dan Patrick and others had laid and built a national campaign that convinced rural people in midwestern states that illegal immigrants were crossing the border to rape and destroy our country. Now, most Americans believe we need competent border security. In the post-9/11 world, our national security is not negotiable. This does not mean we need to scapegoat groups of people. 

Originally, the consensus argument was, “We support legal immigration, not illegal immigration.” Never mind the intermixing of the terms ‘illegal immigration’ with ‘immigration’, this was the party line used to deflect claims of xenophobia or racism. Then over time, there was a backlash against legal immigration as well. When deciding on what kinds of immigrants we should prioritize (skilled, unskilled, college-educated, etc.), the same people oppose any changes or increases because immigrants would drive down wages. Basically, we are ok with people coming here legally, but we are going to put up every roadblock to prevent you from coming here. Last October, the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) released a survey that measured American attitudes towards immigration. Some of their findings are startling, though not surprising.  They found that “74 percent of Republicans think immigrants are a burden, while only 35 percent of Democrats do.” The generational divide on this point is also significant, with 62 percent of seniors believing immigrants are a burden, but only 32 percent of young Americans. As the Republican party sheds young professionals and college-educated voters to market to older White working-class voters, these attitudes are solidified in the party’s structure. 

In the last 15 years, I’ve had a front-row seat watching the progression (or regression) of the party from a suburban, middle-class party with an interest in Hispanic voters to an older rural, working-class party who openly questions if the person speaking Spanish at the booth in the coffee shop in town is here legally. The reality is the racial and xenophobic anxieties were always there. Party leaders like the Bush family, John McCain, and many others did a good job at diffusing these impulses, or at worse, muzzling them. With the rising influence of social media, these anxieties have been fed by talk show hosts like Laura Ingraham, Mark Levin, and Lou Dobbs. When you combine it with daily Twitter diatribes from the President, you have a nearly unbreakable support system.

Now I realize that many of you have stopped reading out of anger, and some have created new profanities, and most believe I am a gutless RINO sellout. I also owe you an apology. When I saw these cancerous symptoms a decade ago, I did not actively confront it. I would mention it bothered me on a Facebook post, but at political events, I normally walked away instead of pushing back. I let my political ambitions trump what I knew was wrong. I would defend the party against outsider attacks because while my team has its faults, it is still MY TEAM. I knew one day this intervention would have to happen, and the tragedy that took place at the Walmart in El Paso was the final straw.

The terrorist responsible is a 21-year-old man from a middle-class Dallas-Fort Worth suburb that is best known for having the most expensive high school football stadium in the country, and it is the home of Kyler Murray, the 1st pick in the NFL Draft this year. This person drove 600 miles to a majority-Hispanic city because he wanted to ‘Stop the Invasion’. From what has been discovered from his social media activity, he was inspired by the terrorist that executed 9 people at the church in South Carolina, and he was a passionate believer in the anti-immigration rhetoric used by our president. No, I do not believe the President is liable for the shooting, but it needs to be a wakeup call. A mentally disturbed racist using identical language of one of the most powerful political figures in the state, killed fellow Americans because he was blinded by hateful rhetoric that is used interchangeably by many political activists and elected officials. 

In the youth group room at my childhood church, there are walls painted by students as an expression of what it means to be a Christian. On the wall behind where my youth pastor would preach is a school of fish pointing one direction, with one fish facing the other way. Sometimes, you must buck peer pressure because your peers want you to go along with something you know is wrong. Right now, this could be that moment, and I accept that.  

I will leave you with this. Ask yourself this one question. Is an illegal immigrant a human being? I am not asking what you think needs to be done to solve this complex issue. This is a simple yes or no question. If you asked this question on your social media account, will your friends and allies be able to answer this simple, basic question? If your answer is ‘yes, but…’ or anything other than a simple ‘yes’, you have successfully dehumanized a group of people. If you call yourself a person of faith and fail this simple test, you need to ask yourself what idol you are actually worshipping. The world and this country needs a vibrant, healthy Republican Party. We cannot treat or ignore the symptoms any longer. We must treat the disease instead. I am under no illusion that the treatment will be tough, and the immediate side effects will not be pleasant, but we can choose to take our medicine and start the recovery or let the disease kill us. The choice is yours.

 

Your loyal friend,

 

Luke

THANK YOU, PRESIDENT TRUMP

by with No Comment FeaturedPolitics

Thank you, President Trump. Thank you for electrifying a nation that was politically flaccid. Thank you for jolting younger generations into political action. And, If I am being totally honest, thank for driving me to awaken the Silverback inside me.

Over the last six hundred and fifty four days of this Presidency, I’ve observed many things that have equally disturbed me and broken my heart. Unfortunately, at the top of that list are Conservatives of Faith who have continued to support this President. The more that I continued to see the bastardization of Faith, did it only drive me to recall my own Christian upbringing. While the net outcome of those conversations with myself will be shared at a later time, I did remember the following passage from 1 Kings 3: 16-27. Which is a story about King Solomon making a decision between amongst two disputing women:

16 Now two prostitutes came to the king and stood before him. 17 One of them said, “Pardon me, my lord. This woman and I live in the same house, and I had a baby while she was there with me. 18 The third day after my child was born, this woman also had a baby. We were alone; there was no one in the house but the two of us.

19 “During the night this woman’s son died because she lay on him. 20 So she got up in the middle of the night and took my son from my side while I your servant was asleep. She put him by her breast and put her dead son by my breast. 21 The next morning, I got up to nurse my son—and he was dead! But when I looked at him closely in the morning light, I saw that it wasn’t the son I had borne.”

22 The other woman said, “No! The living one is my son; the dead one is yours.”

But the first one insisted, “No! The dead one is yours; the living one is mine.” And so they argued before the king.

23 The king said, “This one says, ‘My son is alive and your son is dead,’ while that one says, ‘No! Your son is dead and mine is alive.’”

24 Then the king said, “Bring me a sword.” So they brought a sword for the king.25 He then gave an order: “Cut the living child in two and give half to one and half to the other.”

26 The woman whose son was alive was deeply moved out of love for her son and said to the king, “Please, my lord, give her the living baby! Don’t kill him!”

But the other said, “Neither I nor you shall have him. Cut him in two!”

27 Then the king gave his ruling: “Give the living baby to the first woman. Do not kill him; she is his mother.”

America is the baby. Love always wins. Go vote.

Historic Kavanaugh Hearing… The LCR Responds…

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Yesterday (9/27/18) was a historic day in American politics with the Brett Kavanaugh and Dr. Christine Blasey Ford hearings. We asked four of our contributors, 3 Independents, 1 Left, and 1 Right, to weigh in and here’s what they had to say…

“It’s so easy to claim, “Why didn’t you say anything before,” “Why did it take you so long?,”  or “What are you afraid of?” Christine Blasey Ford provides an answer to all these idiotic questions. It’s easy to forget that the moment someone speaks out about their experience, pain, and assault, they are instantly thrown into the spotlight. Their entire life is put on display and all the trolls and goblins come out to play. Anyone and everyone who wants to take a jab at someone who has been brave enough to speak out is shut down by mongrels whose sole job is to belittle and verbally destroy them because they can. It’s a tragedy to think that so many women are subjected to this treatment, and only a few will ever get to tell their story.” – Independent Asian Inquisitor 

 

“Republicans want a Conservative on the court of course, but why THIS one? In more civil times, an honorable man would remove himself from consideration for fear that such controversy would damage the institution. Gorsuch was confirmed without any of this kind of disgraceful spectacle. Republicans should vote “No” on Brett Kavanaugh.” – Stoic Troubadour

 

To believe or not to believe. This is the current question US Senators face as they debate on the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh becoming the next Supreme Court Justice. The recent allegations have made the Senate hearings even more contentious and partisan. My only say, with any sexual allegation, is that there’s a reason why accusers come forward… about Kavanaugh, Weinstein, Cosby, and a whole host of other high profile male celebrities. There’s a reason why it’s been them vs those who’ve never been implicated on such allegations. – Independent Texan Male

 

“During Dr. Christine Ford’s testimony, when asked why she came forward, she said she did so out of civic duty. It’s quite appalling to me she is one of so few people operating under any obligation of civic duty. Meanwhile, we’ve got people like Senator Orrin Hatch saying things like, “In other words, she’s pleasing”, while making a point about how articulate and attractive Dr. Ford is as a witness. My question is, when will more of these elected officials begin operating with a sense of civic duty? One that upholds more than just centuries worth of patriarchy.” – Center Left HR 

 

Two believable people gave both sides reason not to change course – and I don’t think many people changed their minds. Most people are just angrier that others did not. I fear this could change the nature of the MeToo movement. It’s easy to demonize Weinstein – a gross, obnoxious wealthy man we only sort of know who was preying on beautiful celebrities we love. Trump was elected in part because Scalia passed. If believing costs you the change to the Supreme Court that made you vote for this President (despite his many other difficult traits), many of those people just need their agenda now. The pendulum had perhaps swung too far in blurring the line between supporting victims and demonizing accusers without corroboration. This may return the pendulum too far the other way… or just as damaging… create two hardened camps that are both 100% sure. – Right Army Veteran

Do you agree with any of our perspectives?

The Pepsi Challenge (Political Opinions & Social Progress)

by with No Comment Diversity & InclusionSocial Issues

Opinions should be innocuous and a matter of preference, and that has not been the case with political opinions. They’ve become so polarizing, that they’ve halted the political progression of this nation. Something no opinion should do. 

Have you ever been to a restaurant and the waiter asks for your drink order and you say, “I’ll just have a Coke?” The waiter sometimes responds, “I’m sorry, we only have Pepsi products.” With the exception of very rare sticklers to Coke products, almost everyone will simply order a Pepsi without giving it much thought.  Why? Because while most people prefer either Coke or Pepsi, it doesn’t prohibit them from enjoying a nice cold fizzy drink if their favorite isn’t available. No one is going to leave a restaurant for the protest of Coke products when the restaurant only has Pepsi products. You like Coke over Pepsi or Pepsi over Coke, yet your opinion on the soda is inconsequential and you have no problem drinking the similar alternative.

The current US political climate has allowed people to have political stances, stances that are quite damaging under the guise of “opinions.” 

Even more dangerous, opinions have superseded actual facts.

From the revisionist historical narrative that the American Civil War was fought over “states rights” and not slavery to holding dear to the belief President Obama was a Muslim (as if that would have been a bad thing anyway), their opinions have become shields for bigotry, thus the extreme polarization of issues. 

Related: Diplomacy and War: Know the Difference

Recent news has been filled with such opinions of Black Lives Matter vs all lives matter… maintaining confederate statues vs removing confederate statues… and the latest debate… how do people feel about Colin Kaepernick and the NFL player protests. “Opinions” on these issues mentioned above, specifically from those who identify as Conservative/Trump base, unequivocally go against a cause or people that have been wronged. 

“That’s just my opinion” simply isn’t valid for wanting to uphold honoring public places for a treasonous faction like the Confederate States of America. That “opinion” fuels the opposition and it’s a shield for an appreciation of the Confederacy, which you know… attacked the United States to uphold slavery. 

Yes, it seems as if this article is a dig at Conservatives/Trump base. For starters, you catch on quick; and second, yes, you are correct. Conservatives have become entrenched on opinions that side with the wrongdoing of marginalized people. Liberal or Conservative extremism is bad; however, Conservative extremism seems to be furthering the political divide in this nation for their relentless defense of bigotry and being anti-social progress. 

I want to do my part with those burning their Nikes… worried about Hillary Clinton emails… and seeing the need to honor Generals of a nation that went to war with their countrymen and attempted to secede from the United States. I offer you all a Coke and a smile… and if you don’t yell, “It’s disrespectful to the flag,” I’ll even see if I can get you a Pepsi.