Trump’s Profound Effect on the Presidency of the United States

by with No Comment Gen Z

For better or worse, Donald Trump has had a profound effect on the Presidency of the United States – possibly more drastic and long lasting than any other President in modern history. After years of Republicans nominating nice guys for president (Ford, Reagan, both Bushes, McCain & Romney), they got weary of the nice guy’s finish last scenario the last couple of elections and nominated a fiery & crass bulldog in Trump. He is also the first POTUS in modern history to actually keep all his campaign promises, much to the delight of his supporters and dismay of his detractors. Instead of running hard to the right or left during the primaries and then pivoting back to the center for the general election like most Republicans and Democrats do, he ran to the far right and stayed there for the general election and then kept a hard right line throughout his young Presidency. This has caused a massive polarization in this country as he has the highest support from his party in the history of the Republican party, as well as the highest disapproval from the opposing party. This has caused a deep divide in our country that hasn’t been experienced since the Civil Rights era. 

Trump is doing a fantastic job and everyone should be happy, but there are many on the other side of the political spectrum that dislike him immensely because they can’t get past his brash and crass narcissistic demeanor. It turns them off and they feel it is below the dignity of the Presidency for Trump to act the way he does and say the terrible things he says. His supporters argue back that it is the only way to get results in the “swamp of Washington DC.” 

Love him or hate him, it is hard to argue with the results of his Make America Great Again campaign. Too many to list here, but his Tax Cuts, Deregulation, Exporting Energy, Renegotiating NAFTA and the South Korean Trade Agreement, getting us out of TPP, etc… has unleashed an economy like this country has never experienced. The manufacturing industry created over 300,000 jobs and 337,000 construction jobs have been created since President Trump took office. Fourteen states reached record low unemployment rates. The African-American unemployment rate reached its lowest ever recorded. Job openings have reached 6.6 million, the highest level recorded. Jobless claims reached the lowest level in 45 years (1973). The number of people dependent on food stamps has fallen by 2.6 million or 6.2% since January 2017. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits is running at the lowest level in 45 years. Average 3% growth in the last three quarters – under President Obama, annual growth averaged 1.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit record highs more than 80 times under President Trump, including closing higher than 26,000 points for the first time in its history. Since President Trump’s election, more than $5 trillion in wealth has been created for the U.S. economy. 

Economic confidence rebounded to record highs under President Trump because his pro-growth policies have and continue to put American workers and businesses first. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose in November 2017 to a 17-year high of 129.5. The National Association of Manufacturers’ Outlook Index had the highest annual average in its history.  Small business optimism has sustained record-high levels under President Trump according to the National Federation of Independent Business. The Longest Consecutive Positive Monthly Job Growth on Record – Total payroll employment grew by 213,000 in June 2018 (18,000 over forecasts) led by gains in professional and business services, education and health services, and, once again, manufacturing.  This is the longest consecutive, positive monthly job growth period on record (93 months). Unemployment remains historically low, as the number of Americans filing for unemployment hit its lowest point since 1969. 

As good as all this economic news is, it means nothing if we can’t all come together and heal the divides in this country. All the jobs and money in the world won’t matter one bit if we can’t all get along and have a peaceful America.

Trump has done a great job with the Business End of America. Now he needs to turn inward and do the same with the Emotional End of America, or his Presidency will be a disaster. President Trump – Make America Care & Love Again!  #MACLA 

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Even Jamie Dimon Sounds Like Middle America

by with No Comment CultureFeatured

Jamie Dimon: “It’s almost an embarrassment being an American citizen!”

What a difference six months has made – Last January, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon couldn’t stop talking about the “moment of opportunity” at the start of the Trump Presidency. At the time, he believed what many Republicans believed: that with the election behind us, the President would appoint a cabinet that could assemble policy plans even if he didn’t oversee them directly, that Congress would support those plans, draft legislation and reform that was in parity with White House policy and the President would sign it. Ah- what dreams may come…

In my day job, I must have listened to 200 or more bank earnings calls, and JPMorgan’s is one of the most important. They are generally stale and rehearsed- almost like a State of the Union address. So it’s hard to imagine this was an off-the-cuff exclamation by a long-standing, experienced leader.  But it was in some ways comforting to see an uber-conservative, powerful, connected person like Jamie Dimon feel as helpless as the rest of us as we near the second fight over an Obamacare repeal that increasingly seems to be going sideways, with bank reform, tax reform and a real budget plan still over the horizon.

Wall Street has much to fear from this stagnation. Much of the “Trump Rally” of early 2017 was due to expectations of a “lightning fast” administration that expected to already have unilaterally repealed Obamacare, put out a new budget with sweeping tax cuts, a $1 trillion (with a ‘T’) infrastructure plan, higher interest rates, a boost in GDP growth, and a massive re-vamp of Dodd-Frank alongside sweeping policy changes for bank capital plans. As the train backs up from a 2017 agenda to 2018 at best, a whole year of growth that may already be “baked in” to 2017 earnings (especially in financials) looks more and more like over-optimism… and the pain of that shortfall will be shouldered heavily by Dimon.

It feels like something’s gotta give, and my guess – maybe even my hope – is that it’s the Senate filibuster. Maybe the 60 vote cloture rule really is a relic of a lost era – when the point really was just to make sure all sides had a chance to speak (not to hold hostage the democratic process), and filibusters were rare – rather than the universal means to halt any legislation at all. Senators – this is why we can’t have nice things.

It’s time to pick an agenda and go. Repeal or move on. Obamacare is important, but tax and budget planning are the backbone of GDP projections, corporate growth and earnings, and a myriad of corporate planning objectives for the next 5 years. The Senate has set its time table based on their internal politics, and the country has spoken – that just can’t be the timeline. Godspeed, Senator McCain, I wish you a speedy recovery. But it isn’t just about one vote. It’s time to get this past us and move on to the next phase of economic growth- or by October, the “Trump Rally” may yet be another bear market.