Change in the Air: The Protests in Iran

by with No Comment International

For a while now, the people of Iran have had two things to be angry about: the economy and the government.

Years of rising costs in real estate and the price of meat have put Iranians in an awkward position. Iranians expected more than what they got. Regional experts like to talk about how Iran is not as dangerous or oppressive as some of its neighbors, and the very fact that Iranians can complain proves this. But the country is still struggling, and if you lived there, you would feel it immediately.

Iran is a hard country, and the desire to separate the economic woes from the political mess might cause one to miss the point. Both issues are intertwined, more so when outcry is met with violent repression.

The protests you have been slowly hearing about started around Dec. 28. The Islamic Revolutionary guards corps and the clerical establishment under the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, are the enforcers of the repression in Iran, as well as the beneficiaries of a system that has performed poorly for everyone else. This fact is not lost on the demonstrators who have vehemently objected to the new budget by calling for an end to the current regime.

The people who are currently protesting are from the lower classes and are motivated by the lack of economic fairness and opportunities in the country. The nuclear deal, with its promise to end the sanctions that never really happened, did not appease the longstanding unemployment crisis. The 2018 budget released last month, revealed in harsh terms the regime’s desire to spend on religious institutions and foreign adventures, even though there have been cuts in cash dispersals and an increase in fuel prices, the threat of drought in the provinces, environmental degradation, and embezzlement have repeatedly incited the public.

Maybe all these issues are growing pains of a country trying to redefine its presence in a globally-minded world, or perhaps it isn’t. The truth for many Iranians is that their country has resources that their family and friends never see.

As of now, the protesters know that they won’t be able to effectively make a change to the current establishment. But what they are hoping is that their cry for change will be picked up and echoed by more and more people in the country and around the world to build enough pressure for the government to make positive changes.

The latest protests have no leaders to imprison or publicly humiliate. These demonstrations aren’t pitting the elites against one another, but everyday people against the state. If there is anything you should know as you read this article, it’s how little we know as Americans about what is happening in Iran. The current regime and its desire to censor everything, made sure of this. So the battle is a two-pronged war. One part is our foreign policy on Iran, and the other is Iran’s need to push everything under the rug.

Iran Wracked by Waves of Protests

by with No Comment FeaturedGen ZInternationalNews

Since December 28th tens of thousands of protesters have gathered all around Iran. The protests first began in the Northeastern city of Mashhad and constitute the largest outbreak of civil unrest in the country since the disputed 2009 presidential election and the wave of “Green Revolution” protests it caused. More than 20 people have died in the protests, which are still ongoing.

The demonstrations were initially sparked by concerns over the state of the country’s economy and the high prices of staple goods. After the lifting of sanctions under the nuclear deal, there was an expectation among Iranians that the economy would recover from its period of stunted growth, an outcome that has been slow to materialize. Youth unemploymenthas reached 40% and, not coincidentally, young people make up a large portion of the protesters. With all of these factors putting the country’s population on edge, the straw that broke the camel’s back and brought Iranians into the streets came in the form of a leaked draft budget which increased spending to the military and the clerical establishment while cutting subsidies for the poor.

Over the following week the protests developed from being focused on the state of the economy to being an open rebellion against the country’s repressive theocratic regime, with protesters chanting slogans such as “death to the dictator.” The country’s activist foreign policy has also become increasingly unpopular as many of its citizens struggle to make ends meet domestically. Iran has spent billions supporting proxies and allies in the region, such as the Syrian government, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and to a lesser extent the Houthis in Yemen.

The Iranian government has accused the protesters of being sponsored by foreign governments to create social unrest in the country and has cracked down pretty heavily on the protesters, using tear gas, water cannons, and other means in an effort to forcibly disperse them. According to human rights groups thousands of protesters have been rounded up and detained. Those arrested could potentially face brutal prison conditions or the death penalty, in a recent declaration made by the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Court. The regime has throttled internet access and blocked social media and messaging apps that had been used by the protesters to organize. As a result, the information coming out of the country began to slow leading to rumors of the protests dying out, but these turned out to be untrue. The government was also able to mobilize pro-government counter protests.

As of right now it is still too early to determine what will come of these protests. Some analysts are predicting the end of the regime while others expect the protests to fizzle out and amount to nothing. The protests seem to have no well-defined leadership, so it is unclear who, if anyone, would be able to lead a regime change. President Rouhani’s position has definitely been weakened and it is likely that the country’s security apparatus, especially the Revolutionary Guards will have seen their influence expanded asa result of their role in dealing with the protests.

Meanwhile, the US government has expressed support for the Iranian protesters. The Trump administration, which has already been openly hostile towards Iran and the Iranian government, has suggested the possibility of more sanctions depending on Iran’s reaction to the protest. The President has tweeted several times in support of the protests including tweeting that Iranians are finally “getting wise”. The United States requested an emergency session of the United Nation’s Security Council on the subject of Iran. The session was held on Friday and US Ambassador Nikki Haley took the opportunity to put Iran “on notice” that the US would not tolerate any human rights abuses. Other countries such as France and Russia voiced their dismay that the US was bringing what they viewed as an internal Iranian affair to the Security Council.

President Rouhani responded by saying that Donald Trump had no right to criticize Iran after calling them terrorists and preventing Iranians from entering the United States. Iranians don’t really care for President Trump and it’s unlikely that his tweets will have any effect on the protests. American sanctions as well as the United State’s wavering position on the nuclear deal are at least partially responsible for the economic stagnation that spurred the protests.