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2019 State of the Union Address: Fact or Fiction

by with No Comment FeaturedGen ZPolitics

Various news organizations and media outlets analyzed the SOTU transcript. 

According to the U.S. Constitution, The President “shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union, and recommend to their consideration such measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient.”

President Donald Trump gave this address to a polarized Congress on Feb. 5, 2019, after a 35-day partial government shutdown – the longest in U.S. history. Topics covered included his continued call for immigration reform to the strong economy to the record number of women serving in Congress. 

Starting off his agenda, Trump states he wants to “reduce the price of health care and prescription drugs, to create an immigration system that is safe, lawful, modern and secure, and to pursue a foreign policy that puts America’s interests first.” According to POLITICO, the Trump administration has indeed lowered those costs, particularly on prescription drug prices.

Immigration reporter Ted Hesson confirmed Trump’s claim that in two years he has launched an “unprecedented economic boom.” The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the U.S. gross domestic product has increased 4.2 percent in the second quarter of 2018, but Hesson added former President Barack Obama surpassed that level four times during his presidency.

We get into a sticky situation when Trump says unemployment has reached the lowest rate in over half a century. Politico staff counter this with links to articles that say in September, unemployment fell to 3.7 percent, the lowest it has been since December 1969. Last month, the unemployment rate was 4 percent.

Trump used his usual rhetoric towards illegal immigration from Mexico, “As we speak, large, organized caravans are on the march to the United States.” The Atlantic criticized President Trump for not devoting more time to speaking on Afghanistan, trade with China, or Venezuela. They reported he “devoted 463 words to immigration and 180 to the wall—a total of 643 words on a subject where he is bound to lose.”

Looming over the State of the Union address was the approaching Feb. 15 deadline to avoid another government shutdown. PBS Newshour reported Democrats have refused to accept Trump’s demands for a border wall, Republicans are increasingly unwilling to shut down the government, and the GOP does not support his plan to declare a national emergency if Congress won’t fund the wall. 

Trump continued by stating, “Year after year, countless Americans are murdered by criminal illegal aliens.” He brought Deborah Bissell, a woman whose parents were burglarized and shot to death in their home by “an illegal alien.” The couples granddaughter Heather and great-granddaughter Madison were also present. Politifact reported there is no quantitative proof specifically documenting how many U.S. citizens have been killed. This is because we do not have a national database on murders committed by immigrants in the country illegally. 

A striking display of applause from female Democrats dressed in white in solidarity for the suffrage movement came after Trump’s comment that women have filled 58% of the new jobs created in the last year. “You were not supposed to do that. Thank you very much,” Trump joked after the freshman congresswoman erupted in applause.

The internet more specifically erupted at the manner in which Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi clapped. Pelosi, who remained seated for a majority of the address, rose to her feet and clapped at President Donald Trump’s call to end the “politics of revenge.”

Although the Washington Post said Pelosi’s clap wasn’t sarcastic, it still made for some fantastic memes amidst the 82-minute speech.

A detailed fact check of the entire State of the Union address can be found at POLITICO.

Questions From Helsinki

by with No Comment FeaturedPolitics

President Trump’s enormous misstep in Helsinki, heaping praise onto Putin was a strange misstep that casts doubt on what had seemed like a brilliant few months of politicking.  While the President has been repeatedly vilified in the news, his string of accomplishments had been growing, and it seemed in many cases that he was almost goading many of his opponents into vilifying him while positive results continued to stack up.

Tax reform has produced the lowest unemployment in the history of unemployment tracking.  His general style of creating chaos merely to create a trading chit has proved largely effective as a bargaining chip, while serving to simultaneously rally his base.  The trade war with China may yet yield results, and the short-term negative economic effects are largely offsetting (and probably keeping inflation in check while the market absorbs the cash influx of reduced tax burdens).  While they continue to look (unsuccessfully) for opportunities to create chaos and flexibility, North Korea is moving faster and harder than they ever have toward denuclearization having already dismantled several sites.

Related: Korean Reunification Will Never Work, And Here’s Why

The political fallout from child separation was neutralized (and perhaps made a political win) when he capitulated, causing Democrats to move the goalposts from “stop separations” to “abolish ICE” – leading to the massive primary upset of Joe Crowley by an incredibly talented (but incredibly socialist) Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, which distracted the party and dragged them horribly out of the mainstream.  His press secretary’s (Sarah Sanders) ejection from a DC area restaurant prompted calls for harassment of his entire administration – shaking America’s confidence in one of the few reprieves they had to offer the American people – an end to all the unsettling chaos of our current political discourse.

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Even Jamie Dimon Sounds Like Middle America

by with No Comment CultureFeatured

Jamie Dimon: “It’s almost an embarrassment being an American citizen!”

What a difference six months has made – Last January, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon couldn’t stop talking about the “moment of opportunity” at the start of the Trump Presidency. At the time, he believed what many Republicans believed: that with the election behind us, the President would appoint a cabinet that could assemble policy plans even if he didn’t oversee them directly, that Congress would support those plans, draft legislation and reform that was in parity with White House policy and the President would sign it. Ah- what dreams may come…

In my day job, I must have listened to 200 or more bank earnings calls, and JPMorgan’s is one of the most important. They are generally stale and rehearsed- almost like a State of the Union address. So it’s hard to imagine this was an off-the-cuff exclamation by a long-standing, experienced leader.  But it was in some ways comforting to see an uber-conservative, powerful, connected person like Jamie Dimon feel as helpless as the rest of us as we near the second fight over an Obamacare repeal that increasingly seems to be going sideways, with bank reform, tax reform and a real budget plan still over the horizon.

Wall Street has much to fear from this stagnation. Much of the “Trump Rally” of early 2017 was due to expectations of a “lightning fast” administration that expected to already have unilaterally repealed Obamacare, put out a new budget with sweeping tax cuts, a $1 trillion (with a ‘T’) infrastructure plan, higher interest rates, a boost in GDP growth, and a massive re-vamp of Dodd-Frank alongside sweeping policy changes for bank capital plans. As the train backs up from a 2017 agenda to 2018 at best, a whole year of growth that may already be “baked in” to 2017 earnings (especially in financials) looks more and more like over-optimism… and the pain of that shortfall will be shouldered heavily by Dimon.

It feels like something’s gotta give, and my guess – maybe even my hope – is that it’s the Senate filibuster. Maybe the 60 vote cloture rule really is a relic of a lost era – when the point really was just to make sure all sides had a chance to speak (not to hold hostage the democratic process), and filibusters were rare – rather than the universal means to halt any legislation at all. Senators – this is why we can’t have nice things.

It’s time to pick an agenda and go. Repeal or move on. Obamacare is important, but tax and budget planning are the backbone of GDP projections, corporate growth and earnings, and a myriad of corporate planning objectives for the next 5 years. The Senate has set its time table based on their internal politics, and the country has spoken – that just can’t be the timeline. Godspeed, Senator McCain, I wish you a speedy recovery. But it isn’t just about one vote. It’s time to get this past us and move on to the next phase of economic growth- or by October, the “Trump Rally” may yet be another bear market.