What the 2019 Election Results Say about 2020

by with One Comment FeaturedPolitics

Tuesday night’s election results have been spun by every pundit to project onto the 2020 presidential race. When put in context, some of the highlights are relatively meaningless. Matt Bevin’s loss in the KY governor’s race is not an accurate representation of the political dynamics in Kentucky. Bevin has repeatedly appeared on the list of the most unpopular governors in the country. It says something about the strength of the KY GOP to nearly carry an incumbent with a 2:1 unfavorable rating to a near tie with the setting Attorney General who is the son of a popular former governor. It also says something that the GOP swept the rest of the statewide races by landslide margins, including the election of the states first Republican (and African-American) Attorney General. In Mississippi, the Lt Governor defeated a popular 4-term Attorney General. People can quibble about the margins in these races, but the real story is not what happened in Mississippi or Kentucky. The election results that matter occurred in Virginia. 

For the first time in nearly 3 decades, Democrats control every statewide office and the state legislature. The political trend in Virginia has benefitted Democrats, but it is a similar trend in other states. George W Bush carried this state by 8 points in both of his elections. Before the 2006 election, the GOP had large majorities in the state legislature, both senate seats, and 2 of the 3 state constitutional offices. The growth of the DC metropolitan area in northern Virginia has fueled the blue resurgence, but the tide in suburban areas is a growing threat to Republican electoral prospects.

In the initial post-mortems of the 2016 elections, the media focused on the rural midwestern counties and communities that flipped from Obama to Trump, but they overlooked the counties and communities that flipped from Romney to Clinton. For all of the blue-collar working-class White voters that broke the Blue Wall of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, there were just as many college-educated middle-class Whites and Latino voters in suburban districts that stayed just beneath the media radar because it did not flip a Romney state to Clinton. While Trump’s margins in working-class states across the Deep South and Midwest were incremental improvements over Romney, he did significantly worse in Texas, Georgia, Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada. 

We are witnessing a seismic political reorganization around new issues that shatter the red/blue narrative that has lingered since the 2000 election. Some issues like abortion and guns will not be affected by this shift, but others like immigration, trade, and global relationships/competition will become the new litmus tests. States with a heavy reliance on international commerce and immigrant labor like Texas and Arizona will continue their transition into purple states, while rustbelt states with a skepticism of global influences like Kentucky, Iowa, and West Virginia will continue become more red. 

John Edwards spoke of ‘Two Americas,’ and while he was technically right, his analysis for why this exists is not. The ‘Two Americas’ are not necessarily the right vs poor, it is urban/suburban vs rural and old vs young. States with growing senior populations and states that have fallen behind in the technology revolution of the last decade are the real base for Trump’s political party. As the percentage of college grads increases, Trump’s grip on the state decreases. This trend started under Obama, but Trump has accelerated it. It also means Trump’s coalition cannot win a national election, but like 2016, it is possible for his opponent to lose it. 

Similar Read: The Trump Doctrine: What Ukraine Says About Trump’s Foreign Policy

Beto’s Stance on Guns and Churches Proved To Be Too Much For Liberals

by with No Comment FeaturedPolitics

Beto O’Rourke ended his campaign for Democratic presidential nominee last week. His run to win the nomination was a disappointment to say the least. Despite gracing the cover of Vanity Fair and tons of media coverage, he never did well enough in the debates to garner enough national support. His appeal in Texas, which was enough to make his 2018 Senate race against Republican Ted Cruz closer than anyone could imagine, never resonated on the national stage in regard to his presidential candidacy.

There’s probably a number of reasons why Beto was forced to end his race, but his stance on two issues, in particular, missed the mark and were probably the final straw for potential voters and donors.

Issue #1: GUNS

Very few reasonable lawmakers or voters on either side of the aisle will argue that we don’t have a gun violence issue in America. But the reasons why the issue exists and the solutions to fix it are all over the place. Beto proposed a mandatory gun buyback program for all AK-47s and AR-15s. It’s important to note that even liberals love their guns. While some applauded his bold proposal, it didn’t fall in line with Congressional Democrats and their goals for gun reform. In fact, Senate Democrats want nothing to do with mandatory buyback programs.

“I don’t know of any other Democrat who agrees with Beto O’Rourke, but it’s no excuse not to go forward.” – Minority Leader Chuck Schumer

In other words, if you want to commit political suicide, go right ahead… you will get no support in these congressional halls.

Issues #2: CHURCHES

In an “LGBTQ Equality” town hall on CNN, Beto called for all religious institutions to lose their tax-exempt status if they oppose same-sex marriage. Whether you believe in the true separation of Church and State, similar to guns, this was a mile too far. Upholding and protecting the rights and equality of every American is paramount, but forcing churches to get on board by threatening to remove their tax-exempt status might’ve even been too much for the left, mainly Democrats, who are the main party trying to make sure same-sex marriage is protected and upheld.

While Beto’s exit from the race for Democratic presidential nominee shouldn’t deter future candidates from proposing big and bold ideas, it should make them consider the details of such ideas and how best to roll them out. 

Similar Read: Who Did Well in the 4th Dem Debate… Sanders, Yang, Buttigieg?  

Dancing With the Devil… A Brooklyn Perspective on Gun Violence

by with 3 Comments CultureFeatured

[This is the third installment of a three-part series on American gun violence. Read part one here and part two here.]

“You ever danced with the devil in the pale moonlight?”

This is the iconic question that The Joker, played by the legendary Jack Nicholson, posed to his victims in Tim Burton’s 1989 film, Batman. You see, what The Joker is asking Bruce is if he’s ever wrestled with fate. Moreover, did that tangle with fate deliver grief and sorrow to his life experience.

I sure have danced with that devil in the pale moonlight.

Late in the summer of 2011, I ventured out with my roommate to Queens (NY) on a school night in an attempt to lift his spirits as he was dealing with a breakup. I offered to be the designated driver for the night so he could take his mind off the emotions of the breakup and have a good time.

Coming out of the club that morning, as fate would have it, my roommate began to say that there were Angels all around us and that he could see them. I affirmed his vision to appease him and wondered to myself how much he had to drink. Seconds later each of us had the barrels of loaded guns pressed against our torsos. Our initial response was to push the guns away, to which our assailants threatened that they would shoot us. They stole our jewelry and then ran off into the night.

We quickly moved to the car and drove off towards flashing police lights in the distance. Thinking that we were trying to chase them, one of the robbers opened fire on our car eight times at close range. Similar to the photo above, I’ll never forget ducking down and looking back to see flames coming out of the muzzle of the gun. As I turned my gaze forward, the back windshield of the car in front of us shattered. Luckily the car was empty and we sped off towards the police lights. Thankfully, he was a terrible shooter and not one bullet struck our vehicle. The Angels that my roommate saw that evening and the availing prayers of my Mother had truly prevented us from being yet another fatality in America’s gun violence epidemic.

Hearing the gunfire, the NYPD acted quickly and ultimately apprehended the young men with our jewelry in their possession. We were a little shaken but the Officers asked that we return to the precinct to identify the shooters later that day.

The Officers had investigated the crime scene and determined that whoever was in the passenger seat would have been struck between the head and chest area – I was in the passenger seat.

With that in mind, the Officers then crammed six young black men into a small room and asked that I select the men who robbed us. Looking through a one-way mirror where they could not see me, I looked at these young men in the eyes and was overcome with strong feelings of empathy and sadness.

What could have transpired in the lives of these young men to bring them to this room? Was it low wages and poverty that brought them to this room? Was it the poor public education system that brought them to this room? Was it the American government backed distribution of crack cocaine to black neighborhoods that brought them to this room? Was it mass incarceration and the fatherless homes that those policies left in its wake that brought them to this room?

Having an understanding of the pitfalls in the area in which I grew up in Brooklyn, I had a surreal feeling knowing that there was a pane of glass separating me from an alternate life that I could have lived. In fact, I would later find out that one of the young men who robbed us lived in the neighborhood I grew up in. Here I was, a young black man working for American Express, living on my own, but wondering what I could do to prevent other young men from being in this room. In a way, I felt and feel a sense of survivors guilt. I walked away from that room muttering to myself, “there but for the grace of God go I.”

I know those young men went to jail and I think about them from time to time. I wish blessings on their lives and I hope that they can overcome the mistakes of their youth and the unrelenting punishment of the American prison system.

It has taken me a few months to complete this series on American gun violence and share my own personal experience with guns. Sadly, as time passed, I knew that before I completed this series that there would be another mass shooting. As I write this piece, I received yet another Notification of Death that ten people have been gunned down in a Texas High School.

Why do we need gun reform in America? Quite simply, too many Americans are having to dance with the devil in the pale moonlight… it needs to stop.

This article was originally published on 22 May 2017.

History and the Christchurch Massacre

by with One Comment FeaturedGlobalRace Relations

“I sleep well. It’s the politicians who are to blame for failing to come to an agreement and resorting to violence.”

You may recognize these words as those of Mikhael Kalashnikov, the inventor of the AK-47. In a world where terrorist attacks and mass shootings have become a daily reminder of the power weapons confer to their holders, there is always a pending question: who is to blame?

Judging by the latest information, the Christchurch shooter was inspired by several European events and figures: Anders Breivik, Marine Le Pen, and the Balkan War among others. This idea that the good, rightful Christian world is being invaded and threatened by the blood-thirsty, ignorant Muslims is not new, but it is sickening that some people still act accordingly to such nonsense. Breivik slaughtered teenagers trapped on an island. Marine Le Pen and her party (Front National) lost the French elections because their claims are absurd, their ideas are utterly racist and the French were either more hopeful or less cynical than the Americans or the Brazilians, who both chose to rally behind pseudo-charismatic, fear-inducing, history-ignoring leaders. There is no such thing as a Muslim invasion. Swapping the word “Muslim” with “Mexican” or “LGBTQ” works as well. The people do not feel threatened or cornered. But to divide is to conquer. It does not go any further than that.

The Balkans were indeed invaded, centuries ago, by the Turks. Many Albanians and Kosovans still revere Skanderbeg as a hero and model of patriotism who fought to defend his country. Nevertheless, many of them are Muslims. If these people can accept their legacy, why does an Australian native decide that he has to go on a shooting spree after invoking the spirits of men who are, or have been, tried by the International Court of Justice for organizing and perpetrating the most recent genocide in Europe?

The Albanian and Kosovan diaspora constitutes one of the most important minorities in Switzerland, and most of them are Muslims. The stigma of the war is still blatantly visible in this community, and conflicts with Serbia over borders and the Kosovan independence are intense. Second or third generations have Swiss passports, do their military service, marry Swiss citizens and could not care less whether their children are the invaders or the invaded. Claiming that the tyrants who cold-heartedly ordered women to be raped and men killed, houses to be burnt not even 30 years ago are modern heroes is simply ignoring the most important lesson history has taught us. Brenton Tarrant was probably not very attentive when his History teacher talked about the Crusades. There is no peace to be found in weapons and hatred. 

Similar Read: Muslim “Re-Education” Camps?

Texas Church Shooting, I Disagree With Trump

by with No Comment Uncategorized

President Trump claims more would have died were there stricter gun laws—insisting the gunman would not have been taken down by a “brave civilian” if that were the case. As a member of a Southern Baptist Church in Texas, and whose father and brother are both Baptist Ministers, I still cannot agree with POTUS. There absolutely should be a ban on assault-style weapons in the United States such as the firearm used by the gunman to kill 26 people and injure 20 others. Even with oversight by the U.S. Air Force to upload the gunman’s past domestic offenses in their database, civilians should never be able to possess weapons designed to be used in war. 

However, not isolating this incident and considering all of the senseless shootings that have taken place, my stance is not a commentary on the Second Amendment giving civilians the right to bear arms. I do not advocate for a gun-free society, but I do believe stricter laws should be enforced and types of firearms should be evaluated. There are firearms such as the one used by the “brave civilian” that are meant for recreation and defense. While they still can cause bodily harm, they should not be banned. However, in the case of assault-style weapons which are meant for combat situations—to kill as many people as possible in the least amount of time—they should not be accessible to civilians.