2016 Is About To Happen Again

I heard over and over from highly educated, liberal professionals after the 2016 election that some mistake had happened. “The election was stolen.”  The electoral college had somehow disrupted our normal process (spoiler: it wasn’t any different)…  “The Trump campaign enlisted Russian government support.” And then afterward we all needed to read Hillbilly Elegy to understand how to kindly condescend to the plight of the misinformed blue-collar rust belt that had erred and turned away from Democrats and sided with President Trump. At the time I was moving back and forth between NYC colleagues who’d secured a seat at Hillary’s victory party in Manhattan and neighbors in new England who’d sold their home early to facilitate their quick nomination through the Senate to take their new place in the administration “with her.” They sat down on election night ready to watch the show, and they were shocked at the show they saw. They never saw it coming.  And it’s happening again… and again they don’t see it coming.

I think they saw a glimmer of it before the COVID-19 crisis locked them all in their homes? But since then, the tone has changed. They’re locked in their homes reading their favorite websites and the articles their phone algorithms say they’ll like- and all of those sources tell them that Donald Trump’s performance through COVID-19… all the polls being conducted… point to a president losing ground heading into election season.

Many in this group don’t understand the monster they’ve created in their media bubble. In 1980 (the year CNN was founded) there were 3 news networks. To be viable, network news needed both liberals and conservatives, and the news was 30 minutes 3 times a day stuck between Brady Bunch reruns and The Jeffersons. You couldn’t serve people what they wanted with the context they wanted- so you gave them straight, complete facts with a straight face and let them apply their own context.  Now media is fragmented to where a 3% market share is huge, and straight shooting is dead. Even the best journalists quit trying to challenge us. They serve us what we want by arranging and selecting facts and applying context to make stories what we wish to see in them, and our tech knows what media will excite us.  Most of what’s “mainstream media” is the slice that serves the prime consumer: 25-40 years old, professional, urban, liberal-leaning, with substantial discretionary income. So now if you’re an educated professional, working for a large company in a white-collar job… these days you log in from home, work on zoom, order from Amazon. It’s annoying, but life is working. And if you look at the media that targets you, the biggest problem out there right now are those that want to reopen too quickly.

If you’re a small business owner, a self-employed tradesman, a wage earner or any sort of gig worker (ie the people Biden needs to win back from the president to win this time), three months of this has been hell. If you had savings, it’s gone. You can’t work, your children are home with you complicating work even more. Stress is elevated; money is scarce, and even if the $600 a month in federal assistance works for now, the uncertainty of what’s to come is crushing. Even as the signs are there, the articles pushed back to the mainstream consumer talk about elevated levels in “black and brown communities” that need “understanding and voice.” That’s true – but what those also are are the communities of people that still need to head out in the world every day to work. They are still getting sick because they’re still out there, and having been out in it since the start, they’re not nearly as scared of the virus as they are of losing their livelihood. Further, having not been scared by the world they continue to toil in all day, they continue to visit their friends and family more, and quietly dismiss you when you try to shame them. They’re over it. And they’re turning on Democrats again, and on the rare occasions when they speak up, they’re again facing condescension (here’s looking at you, Governor Whitmer). Those aren’t all MAGAs out there; it’s also your blue-collar swings.

Also, polls now aren’t really polls. For years, exit polls have needed rebasing because Republicans are less likely to respond – a fact that was exacerbated in the 2016 election when Trump voters began to feel that announcing loudly that you expect to vote for Donald Trump could cause indignation from someone around them and began to not state (or misstate) their intentions. With tensions running high in 2016 the weight-adjusted polls turned out to be not weight adjusted enough. Tensions are higher now. Also, currently most polls being completed are online polls by your favorite news sources. You can’t walk down the street, get in someone’s space and get a good poll sample in-person anymore. With online being the only way that works, it turns out (as an example), that most people that respond to a Huffington Post poll are still voting for Biden (although less than you might expect).

And once again, there’s a candidate who isn’t exactly rising to the occasion.  Biden has emerged twice since being named the presumed party nominee- once for a late and horribly jumbled explanation of Tara Reade’s accusations, and another botched interview with Charlamagne Tha God – both of which were designed and curated by campaign aides to be well-choreographed softballs and neither of which won him a voter he hadn’t had already. Conversely, if either interview had any effect at all, it decreased voter excitement which (according to Charlamagne Tha God himself) is likely to depress voter roles. Trump raised $212MM this quarter – a clip he’s been maintaining steadily since he started his re-election fund the day of his swearing in.  Biden raised only $60MM in hard money in April – despite his new status as the Democrats’ ordained winner. The president has a motivated base, is organized, and has a turnout plan that was tested in dry runs during the early primaries (and generated unprecedented primary turnouts for an incumbent presidential primary). Sitting in his basement without a formal role in the government, Biden needs to create viral moments that will excite women, minorities and wage earners, and so far his performance seems likely to depress turnouts for all three.

And it’s happening again. This time… just don’t be so surprised.

Similar Read: Mainstream Media or “Fake News”?

(Mississippi) Gun Line Boss

We all remember the classic movie Life starring Eddie Murphy and Martin Lawrence. One of the movie’s many classic scenes is when Eddie Murphy and Martin Lawrence first arrive at the Mississippi prison encampment. While being lined up with other new prisoners, the warden reels off the rules of the prison camp. The warden’s hype man, another inmate, carrying a rifle on his shoulder echo’s each remark made by the warden. The most memorable remark echoed was “tell em bout the gun line boss,” which was a reference to the prison encampment not having a fence, but rather a “gun line.” The “gun line” was an imaginary line and if a prisoner ever crossed it he would be shot by the watchtower guards. Later in the movie, a scene unfolds in which a prisoner does, in fact, cross the gun line, and is shot to death in the process.

Fast forward to the real Mississippi in 2018… the recent US Senate race between Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Mike Espy. 

Similar read: Major League Baseball And Mississippi Politics?

I reference the imaginary “gun line” as a comparison to the State of Mississippi’s horrid racial history, and the forever reminder that crossing that racial line will not come easy. Mississippi may not have actual watchtowers with guards; however, there are racially motivated eyes always looking down on Mississippi, especially when progress is being made against bigotry.

Mississippi, a state on the Mount Rushmore of racism, has historically treated Black people akin to the oppression placed on minority populations in dictator-led countries. And racist Mississippians sure have a lot to be proud of, they lead the nation in a lot of areas:

  • Mississippi is the second highest recipient of federal tax dollars in the nation.
  • It has the fewest dentists in the nation.
  • It’s the most obese state in the nation.
  • It’s one of the poorest states in the nation.
  • In 2004, Mississippi passed a ban on same-sex marriage with miraculous 84 percent support for the ban – Do you know how hard it is to get 84 out of 100 people to agree about anything??? 
  • It’s ranked last in academic achievement by the American Legislative Exchange Council’s Report Card on Education. 

It should come as no surprise a state that drums up the very worst in imagery for many people around the country leads the nation in the worst way economically, socially, and educationally. However, we’ve known this about Mississippi since… well, it was first called Mississippi. 

Just like Martin and Eddie in Life knew prison would be tough, even harder when serving time for a crime they didn’t commit. That’s a given… being in prison is tough, but what isn’t a given is what to do about it? Next time, how can Mississippi flip the 70,000-voter difference that will be sending Cindy Hyde-Smith to Washington and elect a Mike Espy instead? How can a state that still has the Confederate Flag become an inclusive place for all? 

Well… Martin and Eddie took decades to escape from prison. After not speaking to each other for years, Eddie Murphy’s character tried to escape time and time again. Later in the movie the two reunited and came up with a plan to escape, and succeeded!

In order to cross the “gun line” of racism, Mississippi has a lot of work to do. A few key factors… 20 percent of the state’s residents don’t have a high school diploma. And it has a 37 percent Black voting electorate, the highest in the nation. Just like Eddie and Martin in Life had to set aside their differences with the common goal of escaping prison, (with the help from around the nation) Mississippians will need to do the same… and the rest of the nation needs to take an interest in Mississippi. Politically speaking, national liberals and progressives must do more than infiltrate Mississippi 6-months before elections in an attempt to push local candidates across the finish line. Mississippi needs sustainable support, true “get out the vote” efforts, and with the help of liberal to moderate White voters, the state could change politically. 

But the racial “gun line” in Mississippi will always have its history and sadly will only conform so much. Eddie and Martin’s goal wasn’t to make prison more comfortable, but escape it entirely. The goal in Mississippi shouldn’t be to change hearts or even take down the Confederate Flag. But instead, remove the elected officials who proudly want to continue the oppression of non-White Protestant citizens, and replace them with those who want to reverse the Mississippi we know with the one it could and should be. 

The Pepsi Challenge (Political Opinions & Social Progress)

Opinions should be innocuous and a matter of preference, and that has not been the case with political opinions. They’ve become so polarizing, that they’ve halted the political progression of this nation. Something no opinion should do. 

Have you ever been to a restaurant and the waiter asks for your drink order and you say, “I’ll just have a Coke?” The waiter sometimes responds, “I’m sorry, we only have Pepsi products.” With the exception of very rare sticklers to Coke products, almost everyone will simply order a Pepsi without giving it much thought.  Why? Because while most people prefer either Coke or Pepsi, it doesn’t prohibit them from enjoying a nice cold fizzy drink if their favorite isn’t available. No one is going to leave a restaurant for the protest of Coke products when the restaurant only has Pepsi products. You like Coke over Pepsi or Pepsi over Coke, yet your opinion on the soda is inconsequential and you have no problem drinking the similar alternative.

The current US political climate has allowed people to have political stances, stances that are quite damaging under the guise of “opinions.” 

Even more dangerous, opinions have superseded actual facts.

From the revisionist historical narrative that the American Civil War was fought over “states rights” and not slavery to holding dear to the belief President Obama was a Muslim (as if that would have been a bad thing anyway), their opinions have become shields for bigotry, thus the extreme polarization of issues. 

Related: Diplomacy and War: Know the Difference

Recent news has been filled with such opinions of Black Lives Matter vs all lives matter… maintaining confederate statues vs removing confederate statues… and the latest debate… how do people feel about Colin Kaepernick and the NFL player protests. “Opinions” on these issues mentioned above, specifically from those who identify as Conservative/Trump base, unequivocally go against a cause or people that have been wronged. 

“That’s just my opinion” simply isn’t valid for wanting to uphold honoring public places for a treasonous faction like the Confederate States of America. That “opinion” fuels the opposition and it’s a shield for an appreciation of the Confederacy, which you know… attacked the United States to uphold slavery. 

Yes, it seems as if this article is a dig at Conservatives/Trump base. For starters, you catch on quick; and second, yes, you are correct. Conservatives have become entrenched on opinions that side with the wrongdoing of marginalized people. Liberal or Conservative extremism is bad; however, Conservative extremism seems to be furthering the political divide in this nation for their relentless defense of bigotry and being anti-social progress

I want to do my part with those burning their Nikes… worried about Hillary Clinton emails… and seeing the need to honor Generals of a nation that went to war with their countrymen and attempted to secede from the United States. I offer you all a Coke and a smile… and if you don’t yell, “It’s disrespectful to the flag,” I’ll even see if I can get you a Pepsi.