What the 2019 Election Results Say about 2020

Tuesday night’s election results have been spun by every pundit to project onto the 2020 presidential race. When put in context, some of the highlights are relatively meaningless. Matt Bevin’s loss in the KY governor’s race is not an accurate representation of the political dynamics in Kentucky. Bevin has repeatedly appeared on the list of the most unpopular governors in the country. It says something about the strength of the KY GOP to nearly carry an incumbent with a 2:1 unfavorable rating to a near tie with the setting Attorney General who is the son of a popular former governor. It also says something that the GOP swept the rest of the statewide races by landslide margins, including the election of the states first Republican (and African-American) Attorney General. In Mississippi, the Lt Governor defeated a popular 4-term Attorney General. People can quibble about the margins in these races, but the real story is not what happened in Mississippi or Kentucky. The election results that matter occurred in Virginia. 

For the first time in nearly 3 decades, Democrats control every statewide office and the state legislature. The political trend in Virginia has benefitted Democrats, but it is a similar trend in other states. George W Bush carried this state by 8 points in both of his elections. Before the 2006 election, the GOP had large majorities in the state legislature, both senate seats, and 2 of the 3 state constitutional offices. The growth of the DC metropolitan area in northern Virginia has fueled the blue resurgence, but the tide in suburban areas is a growing threat to Republican electoral prospects.

In the initial post-mortems of the 2016 elections, the media focused on the rural midwestern counties and communities that flipped from Obama to Trump, but they overlooked the counties and communities that flipped from Romney to Clinton. For all of the blue-collar working-class White voters that broke the Blue Wall of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, there were just as many college-educated middle-class Whites and Latino voters in suburban districts that stayed just beneath the media radar because it did not flip a Romney state to Clinton. While Trump’s margins in working-class states across the Deep South and Midwest were incremental improvements over Romney, he did significantly worse in Texas, Georgia, Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada. 

We are witnessing a seismic political reorganization around new issues that shatter the red/blue narrative that has lingered since the 2000 election. Some issues like abortion and guns will not be affected by this shift, but others like immigration, trade, and global relationships/competition will become the new litmus tests. States with a heavy reliance on international commerce and immigrant labor like Texas and Arizona will continue their transition into purple states, while rustbelt states with a skepticism of global influences like Kentucky, Iowa, and West Virginia will continue become more red. 

John Edwards spoke of ‘Two Americas,’ and while he was technically right, his analysis for why this exists is not. The ‘Two Americas’ are not necessarily the right vs poor, it is urban/suburban vs rural and old vs young. States with growing senior populations and states that have fallen behind in the technology revolution of the last decade are the real base for Trump’s political party. As the percentage of college grads increases, Trump’s grip on the state decreases. This trend started under Obama, but Trump has accelerated it. It also means Trump’s coalition cannot win a national election, but like 2016, it is possible for his opponent to lose it. 

Similar Read: The Trump Doctrine: What Ukraine Says About Trump’s Foreign Policy

American Children in Mississippi?

Mississippi immigration raid… FACTS 

1. On August 7th, 2019, U.S. immigration authorities raided 7 different processing plants in Mississippi and detained 680 undocumented immigrants. 

2. This was the largest single-state immigration enforcement action in U.S. history.  

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August 7, 2019, was the first day of school for many students in America. It was also a day some students will never forget. On this day, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raided 7 food processing plants in six different cities in the state of Mississippi. US Attorney for the Southern District of Mississippi, Mike Hurst, has been quoted saying that the raids are “believed to be the largest single-state immigration enforcement operation in our nation’s history.” It has been reported that 680 undocumented immigrants were taken into custody while working.

Towns that were raided included Morton, Bay Springs, Walnut Grove, Carthage, Canton, and Pelahatchie. Many of these small towns rely on the labor of an immigrant workforce and the raids would greatly affect production if those taken into custody remained in detainment.

It is still unknown if the employers willingly hired alleged undocumented immigrants or if any knew at all. There will be a legal question of blame that will begin in the aftermath. However, what has been front and center are the children of these workers who woke up on a Wednesday morning and said goodbye after their parents dropped them off to school and waited in vain for their return. This is the American ICE system of 2019. The federal agency was created post the 9/11 attacks during the George W. Bush administration. With its passage in 2002, it is now one of the most powerful federal law enforcement agencies.  

And today, ICE is out of control. 

680 people taken into custody in a single day is unfathomable and the American justice system continues to push the envelope in what is deemed acceptable and outrageous. Americans are constantly being told that illegal immigrants are ‘raiding’ our country and are described as dangerous and criminal. While many citizens and immigrants in this country can be categorized as dangerous, it is unfair and disgusting that our country is seizing people without their due process of law. We are turning into an authoritarian county and labeling people based upon the rhetoric of President Trump. It is disgusting and undemocratic.

Children of parents who are taken into custody are left without proper guardians or care and this is the story we don’t focus on. Many of these children were either brought here or born here and had no decision about their assimilation into American culture. And regardless of their circumstances, where is the humanity in our federal government’s actions? Where is the humanity in policy? Of course, this country has a problem with illegal immigration, but what country doesn’t? We should work to figure out a proper way to address immigration and not use our powers to disrupt and interrupt the lives of immigrants who are actively contributing to the fabric of our nation because of pressure by the president. 

Similar Read: “Newspeak”  

(Mississippi) Gun Line Boss

We all remember the classic movie Life starring Eddie Murphy and Martin Lawrence. One of the movie’s many classic scenes is when Eddie Murphy and Martin Lawrence first arrive at the Mississippi prison encampment. While being lined up with other new prisoners, the warden reels off the rules of the prison camp. The warden’s hype man, another inmate, carrying a rifle on his shoulder echo’s each remark made by the warden. The most memorable remark echoed was “tell em bout the gun line boss,” which was a reference to the prison encampment not having a fence, but rather a “gun line.” The “gun line” was an imaginary line and if a prisoner ever crossed it he would be shot by the watchtower guards. Later in the movie, a scene unfolds in which a prisoner does, in fact, cross the gun line, and is shot to death in the process.

Fast forward to the real Mississippi in 2018… the recent US Senate race between Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Mike Espy. 

Similar read: Major League Baseball And Mississippi Politics?

I reference the imaginary “gun line” as a comparison to the State of Mississippi’s horrid racial history, and the forever reminder that crossing that racial line will not come easy. Mississippi may not have actual watchtowers with guards; however, there are racially motivated eyes always looking down on Mississippi, especially when progress is being made against bigotry.

Mississippi, a state on the Mount Rushmore of racism, has historically treated Black people akin to the oppression placed on minority populations in dictator-led countries. And racist Mississippians sure have a lot to be proud of, they lead the nation in a lot of areas:

  • Mississippi is the second highest recipient of federal tax dollars in the nation.
  • It has the fewest dentists in the nation.
  • It’s the most obese state in the nation.
  • It’s one of the poorest states in the nation.
  • In 2004, Mississippi passed a ban on same-sex marriage with miraculous 84 percent support for the ban – Do you know how hard it is to get 84 out of 100 people to agree about anything??? 
  • It’s ranked last in academic achievement by the American Legislative Exchange Council’s Report Card on Education. 

It should come as no surprise a state that drums up the very worst in imagery for many people around the country leads the nation in the worst way economically, socially, and educationally. However, we’ve known this about Mississippi since… well, it was first called Mississippi. 

Just like Martin and Eddie in Life knew prison would be tough, even harder when serving time for a crime they didn’t commit. That’s a given… being in prison is tough, but what isn’t a given is what to do about it? Next time, how can Mississippi flip the 70,000-voter difference that will be sending Cindy Hyde-Smith to Washington and elect a Mike Espy instead? How can a state that still has the Confederate Flag become an inclusive place for all? 

Well… Martin and Eddie took decades to escape from prison. After not speaking to each other for years, Eddie Murphy’s character tried to escape time and time again. Later in the movie the two reunited and came up with a plan to escape, and succeeded!

In order to cross the “gun line” of racism, Mississippi has a lot of work to do. A few key factors… 20 percent of the state’s residents don’t have a high school diploma. And it has a 37 percent Black voting electorate, the highest in the nation. Just like Eddie and Martin in Life had to set aside their differences with the common goal of escaping prison, (with the help from around the nation) Mississippians will need to do the same… and the rest of the nation needs to take an interest in Mississippi. Politically speaking, national liberals and progressives must do more than infiltrate Mississippi 6-months before elections in an attempt to push local candidates across the finish line. Mississippi needs sustainable support, true “get out the vote” efforts, and with the help of liberal to moderate White voters, the state could change politically. 

But the racial “gun line” in Mississippi will always have its history and sadly will only conform so much. Eddie and Martin’s goal wasn’t to make prison more comfortable, but escape it entirely. The goal in Mississippi shouldn’t be to change hearts or even take down the Confederate Flag. But instead, remove the elected officials who proudly want to continue the oppression of non-White Protestant citizens, and replace them with those who want to reverse the Mississippi we know with the one it could and should be. 

Major League Baseball And Mississippi Politics?

Major League Baseball (MLB) has a Political Action Committee (PAC). PAC’s are organizations that privately raise money to influence elections or legislation, especially at the federal level. Most corporations have one. That’s not the real story here.

The real story is that on November 23rd, their PAC decided to make a $5,000 donation — the maximum donation allowed under the law — to Mississippi Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. How can they justify such a donation AFTER the Senator made several racially charged and insensitive comments on the campaign trail? The answer is they can’t, and by 8:30 am today (11/25/18), not even 48 hours later, they’ve asked for the donation to be returned. Official MLB statement…

“The contribution was made in connection with an event that MLB lobbyists were asked to attend. MLB has requested that the contribution be returned.”

Talk about optics for a league that has struggled with integrating African-American players since day one. In 1956, which was Jackie Robinson’s last year in the Majors, African-Americans made up 6.7% of all MLB players. Seventy years later there has been virtually no difference or improvement in that figure (2017 – it was 7.7%). Lack of inner city programs, engagement, outreach, etc., the list is long and probably worth another article as to why those numbers are so low.

Similar read: A Peak Inside American Sports: Cheers & Protests

Regarding the peculiarity of Major League Baseball and Mississippi Politics… the link is hard to find since the state of Mississippi doesn’t have a Major League Baseball team. The economics are simple… Mississippi is one of the poorest states in the country and their economy can’t support a pro team. Next to Louisiana, it’s the poorest state in the country with nearly 20% of their residents living in poverty. Hard to sell premium seating and book big entertainment events when their economy is in such condition. Sure, if Cindy Hyde-Smith wins the runoff election, perhaps her vote would count towards passing legislation that would positively impact the MLB and their owners. But with the outcome of the Midterms, Democrats taking the House and Republicans picking up a few more Senate seats, her vote probably wouldn’t matter. So the question remains, why?

I think it’s also worth noting that Charles B. Johnson, billionaire and principal owner of the San Francisco Giants, also donated to her campaign AFTER her “public hanging” comment surfaced. Mr. Johnson is one of the largest Republican Party donors in the country, but why is he concerned about Mississippi politics? He’s originally from New Jersey, attended Yale University, and is the former chairman of Franklin Templeton Investments, one of the world’s largest asset management firms with $740 billion in assets under management. California, and especially the San Francisco area, is probably the most liberal state and city in the country… in comparison to Mississippi, which probably couldn’t be more different regarding issues of race, politics, and progressive views.

Sure, MLB has asked for the donation to be returned, but it should’ve never been made in the first place. In a league that is less than 8% African-American, why would they care about the optics or the pushback from the African-American community? Why… because decency, humanity, and morals still matter. Pro sports teams and leagues claim they want to stay out of politics, but they continue to make questionable decisions that put them right in the middle of political and social debates. Major League Baseball, and others like Charles B. Johnson, who unlike the MLB has not asked for his donation to be returned, need to be held accountable for their actions. If they won’t hold themselves accountable, then it’s up to the citizens to do so.