IT’S NOT ABOUT HIS VOTING RECORD

John McCain was one of the great Americans of our era. Far too many people caveat their remarks with their disagreements over one stance or another… but that’s the point.

He was a true legislator who wasn’t afraid of compromising or siding with anyone to get the best deal he could find… And yet, when he disagreed with anyone on either side, he pulled at them with all his might. That meant at one time or another, he fought with everyone, but we saw his true heart in his belief that our country’s values would set the whole world free, such as his bipartisan work on campaign finance reform.

Those who chastise McCain for his spectrum of politics or his view on an issue miss the point. He was one of the few men left in Washington that throughout his life proved that he believed in something greater than himself and directed his entire life’s work toward those goals.

If we had 100 senators who approached their own constituents and principles (liberal or conservative) as McCain did, we would be a much better country. And without his example, we are probably less.

Questions From Helsinki

President Trump’s enormous misstep in Helsinki, heaping praise onto Putin was a strange misstep that casts doubt on what had seemed like a brilliant few months of politicking.  While the President has been repeatedly vilified in the news, his string of accomplishments had been growing, and it seemed in many cases that he was almost goading many of his opponents into vilifying him while positive results continued to stack up.

Tax reform has produced the lowest unemployment in the history of unemployment tracking.  His general style of creating chaos merely to create a trading chit has proved largely effective as a bargaining chip, while serving to simultaneously rally his base.  The trade war with China may yet yield results, and the short-term negative economic effects are largely offsetting (and probably keeping inflation in check while the market absorbs the cash influx of reduced tax burdens).  While they continue to look (unsuccessfully) for opportunities to create chaos and flexibility, North Korea is moving faster and harder than they ever have toward denuclearization having already dismantled several sites.

Related: Korean Reunification Will Never Work, And Here’s Why

The political fallout from child separation was neutralized (and perhaps made a political win) when he capitulated, causing Democrats to move the goalposts from “stop separations” to “abolish ICE” – leading to the massive primary upset of Joe Crowley by an incredibly talented (but incredibly socialist) Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, which distracted the party and dragged them horribly out of the mainstream.  His press secretary’s (Sarah Sanders) ejection from a DC area restaurant prompted calls for harassment of his entire administration – shaking America’s confidence in one of the few reprieves they had to offer the American people – an end to all the unsettling chaos of our current political discourse.

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Conversative Vet Responds to SOTU

The nature of the state of the union speech, with its widely disseminated advance copies and formal nature, proved to be the most presidential delivery of any speech the president has given since his inauguration speech. While he seemed bored at times he did appear presidential. Still, it was a good moment for him (if only by comparison).

Nonetheless, it appeared that there were a number of cases he could have made stronger.

The power of that platform, speaking directly to the American people gave him a window to appeal for this wall – and for his amnesty plan… the great compromise that he’s proposed still needs a horse to drive through the legislature, and this was the perfect time to  demand the masses to be that horse – possibly sealing the issue and easily skirting another impending shutdown.

It was a missed opportunity that will likely gain even more attention should we be back again looking at a closed government with Schumer sitting on his hands.

His comment on Apple’s $350bn also seemed odd – while it’s a large number, it seemed to me that it was the first offer to see if the IRS of the new regime would accept that as “enough” as a strategy to onshore corporate income under the new tax reform laws. By touting it in his speech, he may have possibly intended to set the model for other US multinational companies, but he likely gave Apple an early pass before their time.

He generally made a good case for the economy, which is likely his most compelling argument and point of strength. I wonder, though, if he has the ability to stay on message and for how long.

Tonight our government felt sort of normal for the first time in a while… but I admit, I’m waiting with bated breath for the other shoe (or tweet) to drop.

The Life And Times of Bowe Bergdahl

Bergdahl is going home. Getting to that answer has taken the Army more than three years – after the Obama administration traded him for five of the worst terrorists in Guantanamo. There’s a lot to unpack in this.

Working backward:

Bowe Bergdahl was a dumb kid who did dumb kid things. While that’s true, sometimes dumb kid things get you killed or land you in prison in awful places of the world – just ask Otto Warmbier who went to North Korea against all advice, was imprisoned for stealing a poster from his hotel hallway and was released by the DPRK after 17 months in his final days after what seems to have been massive brain damage from torture. Neither Bergdahl nor Warmbier deserved such consequences, but that’s beside the point – sometimes the costs of bad decisions are too much to bear. I don’t fault the military judge who decided five years in the awful place Bergdahl was locked away was enough. That military judge was making a decision based on facts and circumstances and American justice. I probably would have given prison time, but that isn’t the painful issue to me. The painful issue is that we traded to get Bergdahl back at all.

The decision to trade him back fits with President Obama’s core beliefs. They are beliefs I don’t demonize, but in this application, I deeply disagree. President Obama pardoned or commuted huge numbers of people whom he believed were US citizens who were in jail beyond the bounds of justice. This fits solidly with that tenet of justice he holds dear. It’s a good concept, and while I may not have made those commutations, the decision to do so is not outrageous and is consistent with much of his world view. The decision also fits with President Obama’s longstanding view that Guantanamo should be closed. Releasing five of the worst inmates in the entire place certainly seems to reduce the level of need on many of the other members. Again – his concept of American justice is not invalid, but in practice these people were there because short of murdering them, there seemed no other way to remove them from a world of free people those individuals were determined to kill and maim. They were not in prison to serve time, but to keep them away from those they would harm. In one stroke, the president moved closer to both of those objectives which were noble in concept, consistent with good values and extremely dangerous to the long term safety of Americans and the West.

Most of those prisoners in Guantanamo were captured at great risk to American lives. By all rights, they should have died on the battlefield in Afghanistan rather than being captured. That we went to such pains to take them alive was due to an over-arching need for information about the attacks they had just unleashed on the US and a sense of fear that they had more already in planning. In trying to learn what we could from them, we did a number of things America says it doesn’t believe in – including torture and indefinite extra-judicial detention. That was misguided and horribly unfortunate, but we are at much greater risk for their release.

Also at issue is the precedent we set by trading so many high profile people for such a marginalized soldier – captured by his own criminal act of desertion for reasons that still seem either frivolous or simply disingenuous. Such actions show that the way for terrorists to engineer further releases is through further capture of American citizens. In the coming years we will likely re-learn what the hostage negotiators of the 60s and 70s learned about negotiating with terrorists: it breeds more negotiation with more terrorists.

Bowe Bergdahl didn’t deserve another term in a US prison, but he did deserve to spend whatever time was due with the Taliban until a US force could find him and mount a real rescue operation that kept those evil men we had separated from society in a place where they could do no more harm. It wasn’t the prison Bergdahl deserved, but it was the right and rational consequence of his circumstances. The “Taliban Five” are already largely back plotting death and destruction to the West – and they are among the few free, living people alive who remain from the pre-9/11 days who are really, really good and experienced at doing just that.

Additionally, we’ve set the precedent that any American traveling abroad is a living, breathing ticket to release the worst terrorists ever to speak the words “Death to America.” President Obama did truly act in a manner that’s consistent with most of what we value as Americans in making what I’m sure was a hard choice. Unfortunately for us, I fear no good deed will go unpunished.

The Accidental President

Six months later, amidst NFL tweets and a speech at the UN against Iran and North Korea, which sounded a bit like it was written by a speechwriter from Iran or North Korea, it still doesn’t feel quite like reality.

Even so, and although I’m not even sure it’s part of some brilliant plan anymore, there are two things that may have made this a time for a president that seems completely willing to descend into chaos: DACA and North Korea.  I understand that raises some eyebrows, but hear me out.

Despite what the President said over and over before the election on DACA, and as scary as it is to be on the train right now, I’m not certain he hasn’t done the dreamers a favor.  Press even Chuck Schumer or Dianne Feinstein to explain the legality of President Obama’s DACA program and they are hard pressed.  They know it’s not legal, and they know it’s their own Congress that’s being usurped by executive order.  They’re also extremely uncomfortable with letting the precedent of executive privilege sit with any president- but especially this one.  If these attorney generals took their case to this Supreme Court, defended by this solicitor general, DACA likely would be overturned.  Despite the rhetoric, the six-month delay to give Congress time to fix it (ie- demand they fix it) seems likely to have the votes it would need to clear, and if the President really is willing to sign it (looks very much like he is), this could be a constitutional crisis averted.  President Obama did DACA by executive order because he had to.  If Trump makes this law, it will be one point on the board for America as partial compensation for the pain of watching TV every day.

The other may be North Korea.  Now- I’m not certain that we won’t be engaged in armed conflict – possibly nuclear-armed conflict – with North Korea in the coming two years.  That said, for ten years they have been swearing that they will kill all of us in a sea of fire and building their nuclear arsenal and missile capability while president after president said “don’t do that or else…”  and they keep going, and there’s no “or else” that seems to matter.  It could well be that there was no way for this to end well for the US, that eventually this conflict was coming, and waiting for them to catch up to full nuclear capability would make it worse, not better.  If that’s true, maybe it’s prudent to end this 50-year standoff before the DPRK truly does bring a nuclear ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) system online.  And I’m not sure a traditional, prudent president in the mold of anyone since Eisenhower would have been willing to take the personal risk of a preemptive strike (which is likely to have horrible repercussions in the best of circumstances)- even though that same president may know it’s the most prudent course of action for the World.

I still can’t watch news live.  It hurts. But if in 2 years’ time, DACA is law and the DPRK is no longer a threat to the World, this president will have a legacy that might look better to history than it looks on Twitter.

Independent Responds to Conservative… Transgenger Ban Revisited

On August 29, 2017, LCR Contributor Right Army Veteran published an article about Trump’s decision to ban transgender service members. He suggested that both administrations (Obama and Trump) dropped the ball regarding the policy implementation and ban. He also mentioned costs as a driving factor for the ban.

“Military service members retire after 20 years and then collect benefits for a lifetime. That’s an expensive investment- especially if 2 years may make them non-deployable for surgery at a minimum, and for years after they continue with guaranteed medical needs and lifetime complications (and sanitary requirements) that may be difficult to ensure in the filthy, harsh business of war in dark places.”– Right Army Veteran

His full article can be viewed here: Transgender in the Military – A Case in Political Hijackings by Democrats and Republicans

I disagree…

This is a farce of epic proportions. Using medical costs as a reason to exclude a person from serving in the military is a coverup for bigotry and hate against a group of people too many are unwilling to fully understand. The medical costs excuse is a smokescreen. If the military really wanted to curb or prevent medical costs they wouldn’t allow our presidents to get us involved in unjust wars. Iraq and Afghanistan are already costing us $1 trillion, that’s with a T, in medical costs. And most veterans from those two wars aren’t even 40 years old yet. If it’s really about costs, then why not completely cut medical benefits after retirement? Find me a profession in the private sector in which merely retiring at any level provides healthcare benefits for you, your spouse, and family, until death. So let’s be honest, it’s probably not about the costs. Becuase if it was then the military wouldn’t spend $41.6 million annually on Viagra alone, which according to the Military Times analysis that figure is five times the estimated spend on transgender transition-related care.

 I could accept a policy of not covering active service members who wanted to have the elective surgery; however, this ban is a universal ban – no matter what, if you identify as transgender you’re not eligible for military service.

 If this ban stays in place, the irony would be noteworthy… We’d be the world’s freest nation, yet not everyone would be free to serve and defend it.

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Transgender in the Military – A Case in Political Hijackings by Democrats and Republicans

Trump’s reversal on the DoD’s direction on transgender service members was indeed surprising. The path seemed well on its way, and in many ways seemed initially unlikely to turn around – despite having been rushed and having some real practical considerations.

The reason the Obama administration acknowledged transgender service members last, and why it was not fully implemented during his administration, was because of the complexity of the medical services required. Gay military members had been serving quietly for quite some time – that change was made quickly with not much more than a shrug from the services.  Opening all career fields to women took at least some changes – including selling service members on the idea that standards for combat forces would not change, we were just doubling the potential candidate pool (which if done without quotas should in all cases lead to more competitive standards in all areas, not less).  Three brave and talented female soldiers subsequently graduated from the US Army’s Ranger School, and West Point’s most recent branch night included a number of new female infantry officers.

Medical treatment for transgender service-members is more complex for the services. Sex reassignment is an expensive, risky, time-consuming major surgery. It requires a litany of interviews and psychological reviews to ensure the individual has thought through the process and that the surgery is responsible and beneficial, and once done, it has a long recovery period and requires lifetime hormone therapy. If a person (even with a good prognosis) looked likely at the outset to need such a large medical procedure of another kind, the candidate would under long-standing policy be medically ineligible for service, and for good reason: Military service members retire after 20 years and then collect benefits for a lifetime. That’s an expensive investment- especially if 2 years may make them non-deployable for surgery at a minimum, and for years after they continue with guaranteed medical needs and lifetime complications (and sanitary requirements) that may be difficult to ensure in the filthy, harsh business of war in dark places. For this reason, it was slow-walked (although made to progress at least in lip service) and was rushed to implementation only when it became clear that HRC would not be the next president.

However, the DoD does quite a few un-economic things, and many argued that the social benefits outweigh the cost of complications for a very small number of service members. As they would say: if we can deal with $500 toilet seats, we can deal with this, and as a social venture, proving that a transgender person can make it in the service should prove they can make it in the world as well. Also, the DoD had set a path under the Obama administration and that should carry a lot of momentum. Career choices (like joining or leaving the military) are ones with long-dated consequences to service members’ lives. So is one’s commitment to a sex change operation (obviously). People expect to make those decisions based on stable policies over time. So while the initial policy direction was rushed and perhaps ill-considered, it’s reversal seems also rushed and ill-considered.

Until you look at the underlying reasons for both: Barack Obama rushed the decision because he had made a commitment to advance a LGBTA agenda, and had reached a point where he had to set course or let it go. While the DoD had briefed him on the special medical considerations, risks, costs, and was messaging hard to wait for more study, it was clear that study would not continue under Trump as it would have under HRC. The resulting action felt like “DoD- this is more important than military readiness, and even though we aren’t ready to implement, I have political commitments – so you need to figure it out.” That’s an annoying reason to rush implementation. Likewise, the reversal seems also to be less about readiness and more about convincing the Tea Party wing of the GOP (which tends to overlap heavily with the religious right) that they should approve of Trump’s infrastructure budget (most notably a wall across the Mexican border that apparently will eventually be reimbursed by Mexico). Granting Senate Tea Partiers a Pyrrhic victory of savings from a few people (as well as the rejection of a social issue) seemed to be an easy administrative fix for a President getting ready to present a budget case this fall that looks harder to pass than even an Obamacare repeal… and the services (and recruits and service members) are simply horses for trading.

So now we are in a place where any decision is a bad decision. It could have made sense to say that transgender service members (unless they would definitively say they did not require and would not request a sex change operation during their service) were not in the best interest of the services – just as cancer survivors or others with extensive medical needs are not. On the other hand, one administration just told service members to raise their hands for help if they wanted it; the next seems willing to cut those hands off. That’s a horrible precedent and seems like a betrayal to people that have asked to defend us while we sleep.

We all as individuals need to do better in judging our elected officials and get beyond the sound bites. Getting your way is only better if it results in better outcomes. These last few years have divided us greatly in our views on the direction of the country. Debate is good. Progress is good. Making the world a better place is good. But we would all do well to remember that change takes planning, and ideology takes thoughtful implementation, and throughout its entire life cycle and repeal, this issue saw none of that from either side, and the losers were all of us.

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1947 National Security Won’t Work in 2017

Our own national security’s structure has been largely the same since the passing of the National Security Act in 1947- the act that created the Department of Defense, CIA and the National Security Counsel  (along with the total reorganization of our military forces).  That act is now 70 years old, and so is the structure.   For a long time, that large siloed system made a lot of sense.  In the 1980s, the main three threats facing the US weren’t all that dissimilar to those in 1947.  Those threats included: 

  • A nuclear arms race with the Soviets.
  • A wall separating Germany.
  • A world largely aligned behind one of the two superpowers that fought, or financed proxy wars for influence around the globe, with the “third world” so named as unaligned countries almost as an afterthought in our overall security interests. 

 

How much different is that than the current environment of porous borders in small, underdeveloped countries around the world.  One could in fact make an argument that the most dangerous countries in the world today aren’t rogue states, but failed states (or failing states).   Successfully limit the maneuverability of the government of Iran and you’ve limited the maneuverability of Iran.  Do the same in the recognized leadership of Somalia, and you have accomplished almost nothing on the ground- and yet those states not in control of their own borders (such as Somalia, Waziri regions of Pakistan, and Yemen) comprise some of the largest threats to global security precisely because they are regions where a little bit of money and a whole lot of interest in training willing participants to go forth and do violence elsewhere can be the greatest single threats to our current security.  And yet we must still at least prepare for a future situation where other rising superpowers (such as China) will continue to exert more and more influence in Asia and eventually the world.  However you feel about what “really” happened in Ghazni, it makes the point that despite nearly 4,000 paratroopers on the ground in Italy- just across the Mediterranean, the siloed distinctions between conventional forces, intelligence and foreign relations, seem no longer structured to efficiently and quickly respond to threats.

Secretary of State Tillerson and Secretary of Defense Mattis were together in Australia a few weeks ago, and they seemed to be working closely together in the current administration.  That’s maybe a good start, but the silos below them still fan out with duplicative efforts and uncoordinated arms that make current operations of relief, local interactions with locals and transmission of information in a timely manner much more difficult as the lines of diplomacy, intelligence gathering become increasingly blurred and fluid, and it seems time for some rethinking of that structure. 

In an executive branch that so far seems light on details, this seems like a tall order for the NSC’s principals in their early years, but a necessary one to re-think.  As technology continues to improve the tools of terror, rather than focusing first on blanket policies that most negatively affect compliant visitors to the US, restructuring ourselves for the new era seems likely to yield greater results than re-instituting this travel ban, but that takes more than an executive order.  I’m still waiting to see how much interest this administration has in the sorts of important details that don’t fit neatly into a Twitter tweet.

Stop Traveling To Bad Places

The death of Otto Wambier a few weeks ago is truly a tragedy for America, but it was preventable.  The US State Dept. offers an extensive warning against travel to the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea), which as it happens is about the least democratic country on the face of the earth.  That warning by the State Dept. is there because since 1996, at least 16 Americans, 1 Australian and 1 Canadian have been detained in the DPRK for “crimes” such as going short distances from their hotel without approval, taking photos of innocuous things without permission and bringing Bibles into the country in their bags.  Additionally, as the DPRK still recognizes only a cease-fire, it still considers itself in a state of active war with the US, and tries any US citizen under “wartime law”.  That may not be any worse actually than what they do to anyone else, but it should be enough to reinforce that it’s not a good idea to go there.

 One thing many people forget while living safely within the United States, where rights are guaranteed, is how different that is from most of human history and even large swaths of the World today.  Americans have no rights in the DPRK because no one has rights in the DPRK- even (and actually especially) the country’s own citizens.  According to multiple reputable media sources, Kim Jong Un fed his uncle to 120 dogs that had not eaten for 3 days in front of 300 senior officials in a process that lasted for about an hour.

 The US has numerous issues in dealing with the DPRK.  In addition to their regular and barbarous treatment of their own citizens, they continue to use any and all available resources toward the production of arms and particularly nuclear weapons, which they have now shown can reach all of Japan and likely parts of the US.  Despite nearly infinite sanctions against the country, and substantial sanctions against foreign governments providing aid to the country, they persist.  But as the DPRK is still armed with nuclear weapons and crazy, the US has never attempted an armed rescue of US citizens, which would be very likely to result in the deaths of all the prisoners before they could be reached, and re-start shelling (and a possible nuclear attack) on South Korea, Japan or possibly even the US.  In 2009, Bill Clinton was able to negotiate the release of two US citizens by traveling to the country personally.  This only accelerated the pace of the DPRK taking US citizens.  Ostensibly to repeat the media event of Bill Clinton in Pyongyang, 13 of the 16 citizens mentioned above were taken after Clinton’s visit.

 So the lesson for most of us should be don’t go there.  It’s a bad place- and there are bad places left in the World.  Perhaps the first and second citizens could have thought it might work out okay, but the 17th should be pretty sure that it might not.  And if you do go there, evidence has shown that the US government making a big deal out of getting you out leads to more people taken.  Over time, that means that the likelihood of the next person to enter being taken for “crimes” is exponentially higher than the last person who left, and the likelihood of the US government being able to come get you becomes substantially lower.

 Further, it side tracks what the US is able to do with regard to managing China- sometimes side-tracking half of the discussion time that could be used to discuss nuclearization of the Korean peninsula, kidnapping of Japanese fishermen and missiles fired over Japanese airspace with discussions about getting back a US citizen who thought this would be the “tourist trip of a lifetime”.

There is evil still in the World- and a lot of it is there.  Our country will do what it can for you and should continue to do so, but individual judgment is still an individual responsibility, and if you choose to enter the lion’s den, don’t be surprised at the consequences.

Mainstream Media or “Fake News”?

A few weeks ago, Stephen Colbert was up in arms over the President’s dismissal of CBS anchor John Dickerson – whom the President referred to as “Fake News” and then dismissed entirely when Dickerson questioned the president’s source for claims that Obama wiretapped Trump Tower.

To a lot of people on the coasts, this seems laughable and shocking that a president could be so dismissive of mainstream media while making completely unfounded claims of his own.  Nonetheless, it resonates with millions of people throughout most of the Midwest (an area bereft of major broadcast journalists).

Donald Trump definitely has made heavy use of “alternative facts”, but the backlash the mainstream media has used to counter (perhaps in defense of their own credibility) has only served to give weight to his assertions.  A look at the CNN homepage for the past two months yields a full transcript of SNL’s best digs on the White House- despite no affiliation between CNN and SNL parent NBC.  I counted three articles a few weekends ago that discussed anecdotal information that various Republican congressmen didn’t know before sending the partial repeal of Obamacare to the Senate this week, and yet there wasn’t an article outlining the bill’s full content in even terms.  The closest two articles to an overview of the bill on CNN as I wrote this were “Pre Existing Conditions: Pregnancy, Sleep Apnea Could Make You Pay More” and “Here’s a (Partial) List of All the Pre-Existing Conditions the GOP Bill May Not Cover”.  There’s no real up front mention of savings, what’s protected, or that this is a starter version of the bill sent to the Senate.  There isn’t much of an overview at all.  I wonder how any independent person could come to any sort of conclusion at all about the healthcare bill from reading CNN, or even understand fully what it is (rather than a few anecdotal things that it isn’t).

One of the largest reasons the President’s “Fake News” message resonated so well as President Elect was the very surprise that he had won the election at all.  For many in the Midwest, talking to their neighbors and friends, it seemed clear Donald Trump was doing well in their own polls of peers.  Many in the Midwest looked around and could see clearly that he was winning in their district weeks ahead of the election despite poll numbers on major news networks showing different outcomes- particularly in states such as Michigan and Wisconsin.  The fact that the polls misrepresented the actual vote gave many people grounds to distrust many of the major news networks as making any effort to present balanced facts – or even facts at all.

That may well have been bad polling.  In any regard, it’s given the President an opportunity to confuse the American people as to where to look for the truth, and it does appear that many of the networks – perhaps through attacking the President in response to criticism aimed at the networks – have played fully into his hands.  

165 days are over, but there are 1,295 more to go.  The public probably would appreciate journalism that starts with facts and overviews.  When everyone is yelling and pointing fingers, everyone is just noise, and if that’s how the next few years go- it’ll be the media and not the White House who will lose this war of words.