COVID-19 And Trump, A Modern Day Nero?

An email was sent to my employer’s special-interest lists the other day: “Does anyone know where I can find some N95 masks? All of the local stores are sold out.” I was stunned. My company is staffed by some of the most logical, reasonable, critically-thinking people I’ve ever known. People at my own company were panicking about the novel Coronavirus, also called COVID-19. Why?

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has been a reliable source of unbiased, evidence-based public health information for decades. But, they have been oddly inconsistent in their messaging concerning the coronavirus outbreak – which has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on Wednesday (3/11/20), and President Trump is largely responsible.

When the virus first entered the country, the White House squabbled over whether to even share what it knew, and what plans, if any, were being made to keep Americans safe. Meanwhile, experts at the CDC were prevented from communicating with state agencies and providing information to the public. So, state and local governments, airlines, and other companies worked to devise their own plans. Conferences were canceled, airlines put new sanitation policies into play, companies began plans for allowing employees to work from home and to provide financial support to hourly workers. We were standing by until February 25th, as President Trump was preparing to return from New Delhi when he was forced into the reality of the situation. Only then did he signal any intent to address the issue.

Americans look to the president to lead them through crises with a calm demeanor, determination, and decisiveness. Trump did not deliver. Instead, he chose to turn every opportunity to provide assurances into a platform for vilifying the media, blaming the democrats, and aggrandizing himself. What vague reassurances he offered were not intended to calm the public as much as to avoid ruffling the stock market’s feathers. It didn’t work. Trump’s refusal to acknowledge the threat until late in the game may have actually caused the panic on Wall Street. The business-as-usual attitude may have intended to calm fears, but when the rest of the world is rushing to contain and mitigate the spread of the virus, some might see it as sticking one’s head in the sand, waiting for the threat to pass. Not exactly a model of decisive action.

Not surprisingly, Trump’s view of what we’re facing is out of sync with reality. While Democrats worked toward pushing through an emergency economic package to help those forced to stay away from their paying jobs, Trump pushed for a payroll tax break. Not at all useful, because you have to be paid – which means you have to work – in order to get the benefit. He explained his rationale to Republican senators, “… so taxes don’t go back up before voters decide whether to return him to office.” said, President Trump. The stimulus package that the White House is putting together is reportedly going to cost around $700 billion – on par with the Wall Street bailout of 2008 and the Recovery Act of 2009. This package is aimed at corporations, including the hotel industry, which considering that he still profits from his hotels, creates more evidence of his conflict of interest.

The Trump Administration’s anti-science stance is also reflected in its response to the COVID-19 threat. Over the last 3 years, Trump Republicans have gone out of their way to discredit evidence-based science. Budgets for research and public education were slashed, seriously hobbling the CDC in its efforts to create accurate tests and effective solutions. His willful ignorance of how science works was laid out for all to see at his visit to the CDC on Friday. He failed to grasp the simple concept that drugs cannot be created overnight. Getting medicine from the lab to the drug cabinet takes painstaking research, experimentation with consistent results, and clinical trials. All of which require money… money that Trump took away back in 2017.

Exemplified by ​his own tweet​, Trump is fiddling, while all around him the flames get higher.

Similar Read: The Coronavirus Pandemic Should Be the Jumpstart to a Revolution?

The Trump Train Wreck

The Trump Administration is on a collision course, hurtling headlong into the relative normality of the GOP. All of the unpalatable, offensive things that many of us saw so plainly long before Donald Trump was elected, are apparently now crystal clear to them for the very first time.

I have always had cause to shake my head at the GOP and the religious right on occasion, but I have never constantly been aghast at the behavior of their leaders as I have been over the last couple of years. And only now – when their “prince who was promised” has, for all intents and purposes, endorsed the politely termed “alt right” (aka racists who call themselves patriots) – are they abandoning the ship in droves.

That was the last straw for them.

Do you know what the last straw wasn’t?

The last straw was not that Trump had dealings with Putin’s shady administration, endangering national security and putting our entire country in jeopardy (don’t tell me it’s not proven; the evidence is simply being ignored by his followers).

It wasn’t the fact that he built his cabinet largely of Wall Street fat cats and coal magnates, who have the sole objective to enrich themselves, damned the poor souls who are crippled with the burden of making them richer.

It’s not the fact that he has, with the stroke of a pen, hobbled our efforts to clean up the environment by crippling the very agencies charged with that task and installing a climate change denier to head the EPA, nor by brazenly walking away from the Paris Accord.

It wasn’t the firing of James Comey, for doing nothing more than his job, nor was it the fact that he threatened to fire Robert Mueller for investigating any collusion with the Russians in his bid for the White House.

It wasn’t for praising Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte for his murderous campaign against suspected drug criminals without evidence or trial.

It wasn’t that he effectively and efficiently disintegrated the United States’ credibility on the world stage, dragging our country from respectable to laughable during his first trips abroad.

It wasn’t the patently dishonest statements he has made on Twitter, in interviews and speeches, and at press conferences – all on camera – and denies having done so even when presented with the evidence.

It wasn’t the on-camera braggadocio in claiming that he can grab a woman’s genitals with impunity, or the number of lawsuits against him for sexual assault.

It was not the literally dozens of lawsuits against him for fraud and failure to pay his contractors.

The GOP and religious leaders drew a line in the sand when Trump became inconvenient and unprofitable for them. Displaying sympathy for racists was that last straw.

All the above mentioned straws before then were okay, I suppose.

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Even Jamie Dimon Sounds Like Middle America

Jamie Dimon: “It’s almost an embarrassment being an American citizen!”

What a difference six months has made – Last January, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon couldn’t stop talking about the “moment of opportunity” at the start of the Trump Presidency. At the time, he believed what many Republicans believed: that with the election behind us, the President would appoint a cabinet that could assemble policy plans even if he didn’t oversee them directly, that Congress would support those plans, draft legislation and reform that was in parity with White House policy and the President would sign it. Ah- what dreams may come…

In my day job, I must have listened to 200 or more bank earnings calls, and JPMorgan’s is one of the most important. They are generally stale and rehearsed- almost like a State of the Union address. So it’s hard to imagine this was an off-the-cuff exclamation by a long-standing, experienced leader.  But it was in some ways comforting to see an uber-conservative, powerful, connected person like Jamie Dimon feel as helpless as the rest of us as we near the second fight over an Obamacare repeal that increasingly seems to be going sideways, with bank reform, tax reform and a real budget plan still over the horizon.

Wall Street has much to fear from this stagnation. Much of the “Trump Rally” of early 2017 was due to expectations of a “lightning fast” administration that expected to already have unilaterally repealed Obamacare, put out a new budget with sweeping tax cuts, a $1 trillion (with a ‘T’) infrastructure plan, higher interest rates, a boost in GDP growth, and a massive re-vamp of Dodd-Frank alongside sweeping policy changes for bank capital plans. As the train backs up from a 2017 agenda to 2018 at best, a whole year of growth that may already be “baked in” to 2017 earnings (especially in financials) looks more and more like over-optimism… and the pain of that shortfall will be shouldered heavily by Dimon.

It feels like something’s gotta give, and my guess – maybe even my hope – is that it’s the Senate filibuster. Maybe the 60 vote cloture rule really is a relic of a lost era – when the point really was just to make sure all sides had a chance to speak (not to hold hostage the democratic process), and filibusters were rare – rather than the universal means to halt any legislation at all. Senators – this is why we can’t have nice things.

It’s time to pick an agenda and go. Repeal or move on. Obamacare is important, but tax and budget planning are the backbone of GDP projections, corporate growth and earnings, and a myriad of corporate planning objectives for the next 5 years. The Senate has set its time table based on their internal politics, and the country has spoken – that just can’t be the timeline. Godspeed, Senator McCain, I wish you a speedy recovery. But it isn’t just about one vote. It’s time to get this past us and move on to the next phase of economic growth- or by October, the “Trump Rally” may yet be another bear market.