Six months later, amidst NFL tweets and a speech at the UN against Iran and North Korea, which sounded a bit like it was written by a speechwriter from Iran or North Korea, it still doesn’t feel quite like reality.
Even so, and although I’m not even sure it’s part of some brilliant plan anymore, there are two things that may have made this a time for a president that seems completely willing to descend into chaos: DACA and North Korea. I understand that raises some eyebrows, but hear me out.
Despite what the President said over and over before the election on DACA, and as scary as it is to be on the train right now, I’m not certain he hasn’t done the dreamers a favor. Press even Chuck Schumer or Dianne Feinstein to explain the legality of President Obama’s DACA program and they are hard pressed. They know it’s not legal, and they know it’s their own Congress that’s being usurped by executive order. They’re also extremely uncomfortable with letting the precedent of executive privilege sit with any president- but especially this one. If these attorney generals took their case to this Supreme Court, defended by this solicitor general, DACA likely would be overturned. Despite the rhetoric, the six-month delay to give Congress time to fix it (ie- demand they fix it) seems likely to have the votes it would need to clear, and if the President really is willing to sign it (looks very much like he is), this could be a constitutional crisis averted. President Obama did DACA by executive order because he had to. If Trump makes this law, it will be one point on the board for America as partial compensation for the pain of watching TV every day.
The other may be North Korea. Now- I’m not certain that we won’t be engaged in armed conflict – possibly nuclear-armed conflict – with North Korea in the coming two years. That said, for ten years they have been swearing that they will kill all of us in a sea of fire and building their nuclear arsenal and missile capability while president after president said “don’t do that or else…” and they keep going, and there’s no “or else” that seems to matter. It could well be that there was no way for this to end well for the US, that eventually this conflict was coming, and waiting for them to catch up to full nuclear capability would make it worse, not better. If that’s true, maybe it’s prudent to end this 50-year standoff before the DPRK truly does bring a nuclear ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) system online. And I’m not sure a traditional, prudent president in the mold of anyone since Eisenhower would have been willing to take the personal risk of a preemptive strike (which is likely to have horrible repercussions in the best of circumstances)- even though that same president may know it’s the most prudent course of action for the World.
I still can’t watch news live. It hurts. But if in 2 years’ time, DACA is law and the DPRK is no longer a threat to the World, this president will have a legacy that might look better to history than it looks on Twitter.
(No Claps Yet)
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I sort of agree with you on DACA–even though congressional Republicans seem to indicate they’d rather attend to anything but fix DACA, so I’m worried they’ll let the deadline run out, and a lot of people’s livelihoods and security in this country are on the line. Meanwhile Trump has ordered for the “firewall” between ICE and the DACA list to be torn down–meaning Immigration and Customs Enforcement now has access to all the Dreamers’ names, addresses, and other identifying information–so technically all the Dreamers could be deported on day one after the deadline. So a lot of people are living in fear in the interim, their kids are getting stomachaches at school and are less able to concentrate, and extended families, employers, and communities are nervous. A yucky time to wait out.
However, on North Korea I totally disagree with you. I’ve heard on the radio and read articles (sorry, can’t cite) that Putin’s assessment is correct: the North Koreans will “eat grass” before they give up their nuclear weapons program. (I normally don’t look to Putin as my source of geopolitical analysis, but I heard this through some very smart-sounding scholars who’ve studied the region for decades.)
Namely, the North Korean dictators of the past several decades have shown no consideration whatsoever for the well-being of their people. Sanctions, blockades, and censure have been in place for decades already with no effect. There is NOTHING the US could do to stop him. So what does Kim Jong Un really want? What could motivate him to play ball with the US?
The short answer is, he wants recognition. Acknowledgment as a bona fide member of the global community. A voice in regional and global discussion, like other dictators do; like other Communist countries do (maybe not with the US, but at the UN). He feels they are being unfairly ostracized. India, Pakistan got nuclear weapons illegally and were rewarded for it (with status and a seat at the table). Iran wavered, and opened up to international inspection of its program (and that was just for nuclear power; they have never been proven to have made nuclear weapons), and they’ve been punished and humiliated ever since. Kim Jong Un figures, “If we’re going to be ostracized like Iran, better to be hated with powerful weapons the world can’t ignore! Then they will HAVE to respect us.” He has NO incentive to abandon his nuclear arms kick under active threat from the United States. We would do far better to take the lead and continue reducing our own nuclear arsenal (don’t worry, we have a long way to go before we cease to be able to destroy the world many times over) and modeling “in good faith” what we want them to do, while opening up actual diplomatic lines of conversation.
Don’t call a preemptive nuclear attack against millions of people a “personal risk.” Have you EVER seen footage of people in Hiroshima, just after they were bombed? Their skin is falling off in patches; they’ve been blinded by the blast, but those who are still able to move are fumbling desperately toward a river they know runs through the city. They throw themselves in for relief from the agonizing burning–but the river has EVAPORATED and is bone dry. They pile up, screaming in agony until they die. Others who were farther away die more slowly of radiation poisoning. That’s what’s likely to happen to South Koreans–you can’t contain radiation. It spreads and poisons the food supply so its effects continue over years or decades. Radiation would poison the sea around them too. What would Koreans–North or South–eat if they survived a nuclear blast?
Then, there’s the prospect of a nuclear winter. Today’s bombs are 10,000x stronger than the one dropped on Hiroshima. Even a “limited nuclear exchange” would threaten life on Earth. My friend, nuclear war is NOT “personal” to the man with his finger on the button. It’s personal to the millions of children, mothers, fathers, and everyone else on that island and in the region.
Never mind that South Korea is an ally of ours, and is that any way to treat an ally?
Once detonated, a nuclear bomb cannot be “put back into the bottle.” There’s no cleaning up after it–the effects will persist for hundreds, thousands, and hundreds of thousands of years. There’s no “I’m sorry.”
So…it is in our interests to find out how to avoid this outcome, at all costs. It’s too bad we have installed a national leader whose skin is as thin as Kim Jong Un’s, whose ego is as fragile, and whose maturity is as paltry. A wiser, more foresightful leader would not be goaded by the dictator throwing tantrums. A true statesman would use all the diplomatic resources we have available, which are considerable. (If only Trump weren’t actively and passively dismantling the State Department!)
We DO have tools at our disposal. Effective ones. This is a game of Go–a mental game in which the more grounded player wins. Sad that we instead are viewing a stupid game of chicken that threatens us ALL.