Right Army Veteran

2016 Is About To Happen Again

I heard over and over from highly educated, liberal professionals after the 2016 election that some mistake had happened. “The election was stolen.” The electoral college had somehow disrupted our normal process (spoiler: it wasn’t any different)… “The Trump campaign enlisted Russian government support.” And then afterward we all needed to read Hillbilly Elegy to understand how to kindly condescend to the plight of the misinformed blue-collar rust belt that had erred and turned away from Democrats and sided with President Trump. At the time I was moving back and forth between NYC colleagues who’d secured a seat at Hillary’s victory party in Manhattan and neighbors in new England who’d sold their home early to facilitate their quick nomination through the Senate to take their new place in the administration “with her.” They sat down on election night ready to watch the show, and they were shocked at the show they saw. They never saw it coming. And it’s happening again… and again they don’t see it coming.

I think they saw a glimmer of it before the COVID-19 crisis locked them all in their homes? But since then, the tone has changed. They’re locked in their homes reading their favorite websites and the articles their phone algorithms say they’ll like- and all of those sources tell them that Donald Trump’s performance through COVID-19… all the polls being conducted… point to a president losing ground heading into election season.

Many in this group don’t understand the monster they’ve created in their media bubble. In 1980 (the year CNN was founded) there were 3 news networks. To be viable, network news needed both liberals and conservatives, and the news was 30 minutes 3 times a day stuck between Brady Bunch reruns and The Jeffersons. You couldn’t serve people what they wanted with the context they wanted- so you gave them straight, complete facts with a straight face and let them apply their own context. Now media is fragmented to where a 3% market share is huge, and straight shooting is dead. Even the best journalists quit trying to challenge us. They serve us what we want by arranging and selecting facts and applying context to make stories what we wish to see in them, and our tech knows what media will excite us. Most of what’s “mainstream media” is the slice that serves the prime consumer: 25-40 years old, professional, urban, liberal-leaning, with substantial discretionary income. So now if you’re an educated professional, working for a large company in a white-collar job… these days you log in from home, work on zoom, order from Amazon. It’s annoying, but life is working. And if you look at the media that targets you, the biggest problem out there right now are those that want to reopen too quickly.

If you’re a small business owner, a self-employed tradesman, a wage earner or any sort of gig worker (ie the people Biden needs to win back from the president to win this time), three months of this has been hell. If you had savings, it’s gone. You can’t work, your children are home with you complicating work even more. Stress is elevated; money is scarce, and even if the $600 a month in federal assistance works for now, the uncertainty of what’s to come is crushing. Even as the signs are there, the articles pushed back to the mainstream consumer talk about elevated levels in “black and brown communities” that need “understanding and voice.” That’s true – but what those also are are the communities of people that still need to head out in the world every day to work. They are still getting sick because they’re still out there, and having been out in it since the start, they’re not nearly as scared of the virus as they are of losing their livelihood. Further, having not been scared by the world they continue to toil in all day, they continue to visit their friends and family more, and quietly dismiss you when you try to shame them. They’re over it. And they’re turning on Democrats again, and on the rare occasions when they speak up, they’re again facing condescension (here’s looking at you, Governor Whitmer). Those aren’t all MAGAs out there; it’s also your blue-collar swings.

Also, polls now aren’t really polls. For years, exit polls have needed rebasing because Republicans are less likely to respond – a fact that was exacerbated in the 2016 election when Trump voters began to feel that announcing loudly that you expect to vote for Donald Trump could cause indignation from someone around them and began to not state (or misstate) their intentions. With tensions running high in 2016 the weight-adjusted polls turned out to be not weight adjusted enough. Tensions are higher now. Also, currently most polls being completed are online polls by your favorite news sources. You can’t walk down the street, get in someone’s space and get a good poll sample in-person anymore. With online being the only way that works, it turns out (as an example), that most people that respond to a Huffington Post poll are still voting for Biden (although less than you might expect).

And once again, there’s a candidate who isn’t exactly rising to the occasion. Biden has emerged twice since being named the presumed party nominee- once for a late and horribly jumbled explanation of Tara Reade’s accusations, and another botched interview with Charlamagne Tha God – both of which were designed and curated by campaign aides to be well-choreographed softballs and neither of which won him a voter he hadn’t had already. Conversely, if either interview had any effect at all, it decreased voter excitement which (according to Charlamagne Tha God himself) is likely to depress voter roles. Trump raised $212MM this quarter – a clip he’s been maintaining steadily since he started his re-election fund the day of his swearing in. Biden raised only $60MM in hard money in April – despite his new status as the Democrats’ ordained winner. The president has a motivated base, is organized, and has a turnout plan that was tested in dry runs during the early primaries (and generated unprecedented primary turnouts for an incumbent presidential primary). Sitting in his basement without a formal role in the government, Biden needs to create viral moments that will excite women, minorities and wage earners, and so far his performance seems likely to depress turnouts for all three.

And it’s happening again. This time… just don’t be so surprised.

Similar Read: Mainstream Media or “Fake News”?

Bloomberg’s Move to Clear the Field

(Roughly a year ago I suggested Bloomberg would probably run, and here we are…)

Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg fired the first shot over the bow this week in the Democratic Presidential Primary with his record $1.8Bn gift to Johns Hopkins – a gift designed to ensure that future JH students can be considered for admission with no regard for ability to pay.

In doing so, Bloomberg seals his legacy of philanthropy around education, gun violence, and equal opportunity, takes “first-mover advantage” and makes clear to other primary challengers that he’s backing this with his own money and all in. That’s a single step of “clearing the field” if I ever saw it.

For those who would say a NY billionaire who switched parties and is rife with complicated financial dealings would be unelectable, may I direct your attention to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

I have my own serious issues with Bloomberg, but at least by “checkmark” his issues and point on the spectrum are very closely aligned with most Americans. In many ways, he mirrors many of the issues President Trump highlights as his own qualities while being the anti-Trump in many others. Meanwhile, his history for being cantankerous and outright impetuous are at least reduced by comparison, and his all-out war with the NRA may be OK in an environment where the President has mostly locked up the heartland anyhow.

I dunno guys… he’s maybe not the one you’d thought would be the one to beat, but just from what I’ve seen watching the US Senate sessions these last couple years, he’s not a bad option.

This article was originally published on 20 November 2018.

Top Iranian General Killed, Immediate Reaction From Army Veteran

(An attack and murder of General Qassim Suleimani) in Baghdad, Iraq… I suppose if you’re going to do it, those are good conditions.

It’s a precarious place we’re in now. If we knew that the embassy attack was managed from the top, the alternative would have been to let Iran think that it was ok… to assault US soil. But it also forces Iran to either do something or eat it. I’m not sure they’re ready just to eat it, or take that loss, in laymen terms.

This is likely to escalate to open conflict.

I suppose the reason you do it this way is that if we can make the case that these guys managed the embassy assault, Russia will stay out of it.

I think we are fine with fighting Iran inside Iraq and Syria, so long as we aren’t in Iran and Russia doesn’t join. China will also accept our word. They won’t openly support us, but they’ll get it.

And as I think about it, this was about the best circumstance we could’ve asked for… to hit Iran hard without drawing other world powers to their side.

If we aren’t trying to take over or topple Iran, we can fuck them up pretty badly; but this is going to be a big thing now.

And we are going to need Russia and China to stand down – and all the while we are making our case, they’re going to be saying on the surface that it’s a fake case just like the 2nd invasion of Iraq was a fake case.

Overall, it’s probably good for asserting ourselves in the Middle East. Good for asserting ourselves as strong to Putin, and OK with China because we just inked that phase 1 deal last week.

I would guess had we not inked and announced the deal with China, this attack wouldn’t have happened.

I understand there are a lot of troops at Fort Drum and Fort Bragg that were given mobilization orders this morning. I don’t know the number, but based on the people getting called it would be between 10,000 and 40,000. That’s a shit ton of people given that we are currently under 5,000 troops in Iraq.

Reflections on Paul Volcker’s Memoir: Keeping At It

I used my travel time over the holidays to finally get through Paul Volcker’s memoirs, pushed to the top of my list by his passing. I suppose I’m happy for the window into how he positioned his career, but it affirms him as one of my longtime least-revered great influencers of the past 50 years.

Growing up as a country kid in the worst of the farm crisis, my family farm was collateral damage of his battle against inflation. I read his book looking for better understanding and condolence and found none.

His annoyance at Congress for formalizing the dual mandate of the Fed to manage unemployment as well as inflation… his distrust of econometrics… his willingness to label any alternative views or level of appropriate inflation as harmful or outright corrupt in its intent- down to saying one of the reasons he left Princeton was “the unfortunate modern practice of allowing students to rate their professors.” Throughout his career, there was no ability in him to humanize those in the real world or to consider the reality that everything on earth doesn’t fit neatly into little boxes and charts, and that sometimes one can be in need of others’ views.

There was an important role for discipline- for fighting corruption in the financial system and globally, and for that he was useful to the country; but he did his best work for the UN, the IMF and the World Bank where he was able to sort and investigate, but unable to subject the world to his myopic worldview unabated.

There’s a need for someone as he says, “to take the punchbowl away just as the party gets going,” but he didn’t need to revel in it so completely, and should have been more thoughtful – if only in hindsight- to the possibility that the economy could have recovered with less damage had he been able to see better down from his great tower.

Syria Will Be Part of Trump’s Legacy – But History’s Judgement Is Still Unclear

The president’s pullout of Syria is essentially an effort to force an end not only to our engagement in the area, but also to the basic credibility of the neoconservative worldview- as well as efforts in the future to shape global democracy and influence world order. There are plenty of Republicans who see this approach as heresy, and there are plenty of Democrats and media outlets who relish the blood-on-blood infighting to come (and who will strangely express their outrage at a decision they would have lauded once merely because the opposite of the administration’s policy is their policy), but the reality is much more nuanced.

On the surface, the president’s motivation is driven by polling. Our commander in chief is a populist at his core- not an idealist. Most Americans (many in both parties) don’t favor extending the war in Syria. This is quite simply because we aren’t able to do what it takes to win. Assad’s forces are backed by Russia; there’s no way to build real stability in the region without a heavier hand than we are willing to take or through regime change, and there seems to be no way to force regime change short of open war with Russia. Further, as China increasingly begins to flex in the pacific and begins to highlight our “meddling in the affairs of others” -including Syria- as China launches their own massive campaign for development, seeking access to the natural resources of sub-Saharan Africa, the president is mindful that it’s from China where we face the greatest long term security threat, and it’s China who benefits most from our distraction to a protracted entanglement with Syria and Russia. Further, while the timing of Iran was the president’s doing, it’s also clear that they are a much greater threat to global security in the near term. Our security interest in Syria is that someone accountable to the UN controls and regulates the area- whether it be Turkey or the US, either will make certain that it isn’t ISIS. We really can only do so much.

But that’s only part of the story. Turkey’s interest in Syria isn’t focused first on restoring peace to Syrians. The Kurdish forces we have used since the beginning of the war in Iraq have fought with us because they are a people without a land. Spread throughout Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria, this proud, ethnic population descended of Saladin is at odds with each of those nations as they seek to restore some autonomy. They have been capable allies because they have more than 1,000 years of history fighting for their own survival. Walking away from them when we are done will be a public betrayal that the Chinese and Russians will hold up as the true nature of “American Imperialism.” They will say that Americans come with high ideals, but leave when it’s no longer convenient. To Bush-era neoconservatives, it’s unthinkable; to Trump and his “America First” agenda, it’s a way to cross the bridge back from nation-building and burn it behind him.

In the long term, this may be the better move. The people of Vietnam, the people of Iraq, and increasingly the people of Afghanistan have come to realize that Americans come and Americans go. If we fool no one, and if we do really lack the resolve (and quite possibly the ability) to build regimes and promote democracy in the aftermath of conflict, then it is possible that the sooner we go the better. This may also help us usher in a day when America accepts that it is no longer the sole global hegemon and must share global military and economic influence with both China and Russia once again. If pulling back now gives them space we would have needed to cede eventually through direct conflict, it may increase stability in the long term also.

But in the short term, it’s a lot of bad taste. To those who can’t bear to see America as anything but a beacon of light that can dictate the ways of the world, it looks like a retreat. To those focused first on human rights, it’s a turnover of power to another heavy-handed imperial force that will bring another wave of increased violence before it can hope to bring local stability. While the president’s motivation may be no deeper than extending a political olive branch to a growing, centrist plurality of the American public focused on their own economy, anxious to make a trade deal in China and not willing to subsidize stability of the Kurdish population (so long as there’s someone on the ground containing ISIS), if America is a truly is a shrinking power, in 50 years this may be seen as a thoughtful and pragmatic preservation of resources.

A New Hope (in Political Discourse)

Last week members of Congress on both sides of the aisle tested a new low in political discourse during hearings on financial institutions and climate change. Rep. Thomas Massey (R-KY) used his time during a House Oversight Committee meeting on climate change with testimony by former secretary of state, senator and presidential candidate John Kerry to begin his questioning of “pseudoscience” by equating it to Sec. Kerry’s BA from Yale in Political Science as being also a degree in “pseudoscience.” The entire back and forth where Kerry (for good reason) asked “Is this really happening right now?” was actually more painful to watch than even this sounds, and if you didn’t know already would leave you incredulous that Rep. Massey is also the recipient of a Masters in Electrical Engineering from MIT.

Massie Kerry Exchange

Just down the hallway, while the House Financial Services Committee was hearing testimony from Sec. of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin, when he asked to be dismissed at the end of his testimony period to attend a previously disclosed meeting with a foreign dignitary, a standoff ensued where Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters (D-CA), whose committee had fallen behind schedule told Mnuchin that he may leave, but refused to dismiss him. The semantics were not lost on Mnuchin that the Chairwoman intended to later accuse him of abandoning the hearing without being dismissed- something he did not wish to do- eventually after the hearing descended into pettiness and already late for his other scheduled meeting, Mnuchin did leave as he was “free to do” without being formally dismissed.

Waters Mnuchin Exchange

Neither of these hearings was particularly insightful and in neither case was the member of Congress hoping to learn anything useful from the testimony. The primary objectives were to 1) play to their respective bases by forcing extremely senior members of the current and former cabinet to listen to copious amounts of dressing down that would please their bases in much the same way WWE fans cheer when a wrestler breaks a chair over the head of WWE’s billionaire CEO, Vince McMahon. And while many of those on the sidelines cheered and jeered one and the other, in both cases, Congress, the Cabinet and all of America got a little dumber.

But I took some hope in something else I saw this week…

A back and forth feud ensued between mayor and presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg and Vice President Mike Pence. In a similar fashion, they are both on extremely different ends of the political spectrum- although both represent the views of very large blocs of the country and the electorate. And yet their discourse was so much different. It was pointed, direct, biting and civil. People on both ends of the spectrum, in similar fashion, cheered and jeered, and both are men the media on both sides are propping up and tearing down in a personal fashion that doesn’t represent the actual men.. and yet, they remain positive, civil and focused on the issues.

As we head into this election, I’m hopeful that both Buttigieg and Pence will continue to lead us out of this race for the bottom. People on both sides have good reasons to support their candidates and good reasons to have real, honest, heartfelt and passionate fear, excitement and at times anger, but the dumbing down of our leaders has caused us to replace governance with Facebook memes, sound bytes, and personal attacks that distract us from the policies and agendas that underly our elected leaders. You may hate or love what Pence or Buttigieg represent, but either way, the odds are that you judge them by their policies, their agendas, their beliefs and their objectives. And if Congress could follow that example, America would be far better off.

Similar Read: The Delicate Art of Compromise

Cohen Stands Alone

As my father used to say, “A man without a center can have no sides.” That saying seems perfectly suited to Michael Cohen, former fixer for Donald Trump, as he was sentenced today to three years in prison despite loudly and vehemently decrying his former boss – to whom he once declared fervent loyalty.

And yet the President sent him clear signals in pardoning Scooter Libby – a man with little need of a pardon, having already had his sentence commuted, regained his voting rights and even having been reinstated to the bar.

Libby was, in fact, a good model for a man who finds himself in his initial position. Libby stayed loyal to VP Cheney and (perhaps?) to President Bush, went to jail quietly and returned with a place to go, the same powerful friends, a life and the ability to earn a living. Why side with Mueller when your ally is a multi-billionaire with pardoning power, willing to use that power in the first year of his term?

Cohen would have been wise to have taken a hint. Manifort surely seemed to in his final days. Upon realizing he was still likely to see prison, Manafort self-destructed as a witness, preferring some time in prison to a lifetime of isolation from friends, colleagues, and his profession.

Cohen it seems was never that smart. Making a career compensating for a lack of skills and work ethic with ethical flexibility, he found himself blowing in the winds of more determined men – and so he finds himself today as he heads off to prison. He is likely to find few friends in jail as a ‘rat’ who turned on his boss, and may find even fewer as he returns home without his profession, friends, or his former self-professed mentor.

Don’t feel sorry for Cohen. He’s a criminal. And what’s more, he’s a buffoon of a criminal who sacrificed his ethics for his boss, and then sacrificed his boss for nothing at all.

George HW Bush and the American Dream

“The ‘American Dream’ means giving it your all, trying your hardest, accomplishing something. And then I’d add to that, giving something back. No definition of a successful life can do anything but include serving others.”

That quote from George HW Bush struck me even as a kid as my concept of a model life, and his life truly was an ultimate example of a life well lived.

There was no shortage of privilege – but also no sign of resting on his family laurels. The son of a wealthy bank executive turned Senator, he was shot down in the Pacific at 19 years old – only returning to Yale to begin school after the war.

George HW Bush could’ve live a charmed life any way he wished, and chose to live a charmed life in service to his country. As an ambassador to China and the UN, as head of the CIA, he proved to be one of the most successful commanders in chief in American history – evident at the time for his management of the surprisingly successful first war in Iraq, and his wisdom in bringing it to a quick end once the initial objectives had been achieved.

He would also be one of the most exemplary ex-presidents of modern history. As press scrutiny laid bare the foibles of the 20th century’s presidents, his example of personal character as a husband and father seems matched only by President Obama’s.

He lived his life to the fullest for 94 years, and left the world as he lived – selflessly, but on his own terms. Among family and friends.

God bless, Sir… heaven surely awaits.

The US House – Opening Volleys of a New Regime

By a narrower margin than any mid term “wave” in recent history, the Democratic Party has now regained the House, and along with that, the chairmanship of the House’s most important statutory committee – the Ways and Means Committee. The Constitution says that the budget process must begin in the House, making setting budget priorities one of the single most important special functions of the entire body. In the chorus of America’s electorate in returning control of the House to Democrats, the primary concerns were healthcare (specifically preservation of pre-existing condition protections), rising deficits resulting from corporate tax cuts, and the cost of “the Wall”. Now in his first resounding action as he prepares to take the gavel, Richard Neal, likely the next Ways and Means Chair has stated that among his first actions as chair will be…… to demand Donald Trump’s tax returns?

President Trump was among the first presidents in modern history not to publicly release his returns – even though the president has no more need to do so than any other private citizen. Candidates have done so largely to show transparency. While IRS firewalls exist specifically to make certain that elected officials may not influence IRS actions against themselves, and while elected officials have statutory audits that mandate laser focus on the propriety of their taxes, the decision to release them is their own. However, most candidates have decided that even if there were awkward issues in their returns, that to face the American electorate without releasing their own returns was too risky to contemplate.

President Trump has continually resisted such a release, citing such issues as audits most of which seem like changing the subject because he just doesn’t want to, and he chose to face the voters (as was his right) without the release. Most Americans on both sides assume that the release of his returns is likely to show that despite his wealth, Donald Trump pays very little in taxes. While many Democrats have tried to associate this with not paying his “fair share”, and while there may be a strong argument to that case, Trump is also unique to history in not having been a part of any branch of government before his presidential election – meaning that even if he’s paid nothing in taxes, that the laws that governed Trump’s tax payments were passed without any of the President’s doing. More to the point, those tax systems were hashed out in the House Ways and Means Committee which now seeks to order the President to turn them over – and not because of any specific issue… But because every other President has done so and he has not.

The Democrats have been given a limited mandate of power to show they can deliver on the issues the current administration has put on the back burner. If they can use the House to set budget objectives, preserve benefits to Americans and return to an environment of civility in the public sphere, perhaps they’ll be rewarded. This is my country. Regardless of my own “side”, I wish the House leadership success, and hope they listen to those who have given them this opportunity. I strongly implore them not to focus first on political posturing. If their early priorities really are seeking the president’s taxes, impeachments sent to a Senate unlikely to convict, and lines in the sand that create a government shutdown, this foothold given by one of the most precarious margins in recent history may instead ensure this president a second term and deliver all three branches of government back to the Republicans in another two years.

IT’S NOT ABOUT HIS VOTING RECORD

John McCain was one of the great Americans of our era. Far too many people caveat their remarks with their disagreements over one stance or another… but that’s the point.

He was a true legislator who wasn’t afraid of compromising or siding with anyone to get the best deal he could find… And yet, when he disagreed with anyone on either side, he pulled at them with all his might. That meant at one time or another, he fought with everyone, but we saw his true heart in his belief that our country’s values would set the whole world free, such as his bipartisan work on campaign finance reform.

Those who chastise McCain for his spectrum of politics or his view on an issue miss the point. He was one of the few men left in Washington that throughout his life proved that he believed in something greater than himself and directed his entire life’s work toward those goals.

If we had 100 senators who approached their own constituents and principles (liberal or conservative) as McCain did, we would be a much better country. And without his example, we are probably less.

The LCR

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