The Myth of the Line: The Dog Whistle in the Immigration Debate

Why do we believe what we believe – and how do we know we believe it?  This may sound overly simplistic, and I certainly do not intend for this to cause offense, but merely wish to state clearly that which is on my mind.  In short, there are things which are both complex and complicated. These things require knowledge to form a position, or to verify that the positions we have already identified in ourselves are valid ones.  And to that purpose, in steps a philosopher.

Epistemology is a philosophical process. It is the investigation of the foundations of our beliefs to determine if they are justified ones, or rather just opinions we have elevated to moral certainties.  Epistemology comes from two Greek words “episteme” (knowledge) and “logos” (reason). There exist a plethora of matters where your answer is instinctively known to you. To explain to others how or why you came to your answer; however, that is the rub.  That is also the step where we are most known to fudge a little because while it is most certainly hard to be honest with other people, it is often hardest to be honest with ourselves. To be honest with ourselves we have to decide whether the pool of knowledge upon which we have based our opinions is a valid foundation. If we are to do that honestly, we have to answer these questions about our knowledge: what does it truly mean to know anything, how much can any human being know, and what does the sum of human knowledge look like?  

There are different kinds of knowledge.  When a philosopher uses the word knowledge he or she strictly means that you know something is factually true.  This is called factive knowledge. You know the Earth is round – or you should anyway.  You can factively know how to perform or accomplish a task, such as how to bake biscuits (procedural knowledge).  Or, you can factively know a human being, such as knowing your cousin James. You can factively know all kinds of things that are of no concern to a serious philosopher.

What an Epistemologist wants to know, study, and express, is called propositional knowledge. Propositional knowledge is something that describes, or purports to describe, what is in a declarative manner.  For example, George W. Bush is a Republican; the Earth is round; it is immoral to value one human life more than another; it is unethical to separate children from their parents.

What kind of knowledge is required for ethical decisions?  If you are a person of faith and are asked if you believe in God, your answer is easily come by: yes.  If asked why or to otherwise discuss the intricacies of your faith, you would gladly concede that it is a complex matter. You would struggle in a discussion with the non-believer to prove that you have a justified basis for your belief system. Whether you love your spouse, whether you are for or against the death penalty, how you believe we should treat the homeless, whether or not you’re a capitalist these are things you know, and they are expressions of your value system.  The expression of this kind of knowledge is most valuable to politicians too, because they use it to seek to align themselves with your value expressions.

Epistemologists need to know whether the truth about a particular issue can or cannot be known by any human, or you, or all humans.  Then they would need to know if, were it possible to know a truth, we do know that truth. Philosophers also need to know if knowledge can be obtained without experience, using only reason (a priori knowledge), or if one must experience a thing to know it (empirical knowledge). Epistemologists make this determination by looking at three conditions: Belief, Truth; and Justification.  This is how they examine and know whether you or I know something.

This is not meant to be an overly technical philosophical examination of the basis of ethical decision-making, but merely intended to reframe how we view the various debates we engage in when we are in a socio-political sphere.  There is, of course, a branch of Epistemology that asks how a group can know something and how it acquires knowledge. But, for today’s purposes, we will just look at the conditions for knowledge: Belief, Truth, and Justification.  

The first condition notes that knowledge is a form of belief.  If we do not think about something, we do not believe anything about it.  If we do not believe anything about it, we do not possess any knowledge about it.  I do not think about how men’s pants fit because I do not wear them. I have no opinions about the issue, I have not considered the issue, neither am I currently thinking about nor entertaining a position on the matter, and I have never done so.  I know nothing about the fit of men’s pants because I believe nothing about men’s pants.  

Taken to its logical conclusion we could assume that most people do not know anything about 90% of the public policy issues which make up the debates we watch our politicians undertake when they run for office.  Most people do not go throughout their daily lives thinking about trade deficits or food stamp policy. But you know what they say about making assumptions. 

You see, these beliefs you have in your head that you are actively working through or thinking about, those are only one kind of beliefs: occurrent beliefs.  But most of our beliefs are non-occurrent beliefs.  These are beliefs which exist somewhere in the static, bred through thousands of years of evolution and nurture.  We as human beings are inherently tribal. For thousands of years, we existed and survived in groups as against other tribal groups.  This American ideal of the melting pot where we can fight against our impulses to pit “us” v. “them,” is relatively new when measured against the sum total of human history.  In our most secret hearts, we still make far too many of our decisions based on tribal instincts. Our tribe tells us what the answer is, how the other side is wrong – and we are all too happy to repeat that answer.  Thinking critically can separate you from your social circle and it can thin you out from the herd. That is inherently dangerous. As part of this self-feeding cycle, we do not always reward critical and independent thought. Simultaneously, we do not value or provide people with, the two things they most need to think critically: time and knowledge.  Instead, our background non-occurrent beliefs continue unchecked.  That is where truth comes in.  

You have to believe something to satisfy an Epistemologist’s first condition for knowledge, but that not enough on its own since you can believe something that is not true – lots of people do.  The goal of any moral person is to try to amass a set of true beliefs, and discard those which are false.  If you cannot satisfy the second condition of knowledge – Truth – you cannot know that thing.  If you believe the Earth is flat you are incorrect. We can and do know that such a belief is not so.  You cannot actually know the Earth is flat because to know such a thing is not possible in this sense.  And if truth is subjective then no one can know anything.  

But what if you believe something, and it is true, but you had no rational basis for it – can you really be said to know that thing?  According to the third condition of Epistemology – Justification – you cannot. After all, of what good is that “knowledge” if you could not repeat the process to form knowledge again?  For a belief you hold to be knowledge, it must be both true and rationally based. The most famous example of this is called the Gettier Problem. If the clock on my desk stopped working at 2:00 am last night, and I did not notice when I came into work, I might later in the day decide to look at it to determine what time I ought to leave for my 2:30 pm appointment.  If I were, by pure chance, to look at the clock at 2:00 pm and see the clock flashing 2:00, I would presume it is time to leave and correctly, grab my stuff and walk out the door. But I did not have a rational basis for my true belief that it was 2:00 pm. If I had not looked up then, but instead looked up at 1:15 pm I would have seen the same thing and left early. If I had in the alternative looked up at 3:15 pm, I would have seen the same thing, left, and been very late.  All three of these conditions: Belief, Truth, and Justification, must exist for there to be knowledge.

Unless you are a politician.

If you are a politician, you are not really concerned with why we believe what we believe, or if those beliefs are true – you are only interested in how those beliefs might be used to your benefit.  There is no benefit in telling the electorate of today that those carefully considered beliefs they hold are untrue, that they; therefore, do not know anything.  There is much value; however, in knowing what the electorate believes and believes they know.  If you know their beliefs, it is easy to invoke and design reaction.  When both sides participate in this unconsidered approach to knowledge, our public discourse devolves from that of an honest and well-intended marketplace of ideas, to a free-for-all that takes place in 180-character punches intended to anger and fear-monger.  When our untrue beliefs are reinforced by those in power, it can make them feel true.  And if they feel true, and we are told our tribe is reasonable, then they also feel justified, whether they are or not.  Now our untrue beliefs have become two things: faux knowledge, and a campaign slogan.  

Were a person interested in examples of such things, he or she might take a gander at Texas, where the Governor says he will no longer allow refugees to settle, and the political right does not even bat an eye.  They know this is ethical and moral because they believe those people do not belong here, and they know it is true.  This is obviously perfectly reasonable and consistent with their group position on legal vs. illegal immigration.  Amongst themselves, their tribe’s motives no longer need to be questioned – it is clear from the “record” that they are right, well-meaning, and promoting The American Way™.

But how can that be? One of the most common refrains in the immigration debate that we hear from the far right is that they as a group are (and we as a society should also be) “ok” with immigrants, but only when they are legal.  “We want legal immigrants,” they say, and, “We just cannot support any policy action that would incentivize people to keep coming here illegally!” They expect that all these great and unwashed masses should “Get In Line!™” Ah – but refugees already have – they are legal immigrants. Somehow, the political right knows that refugees do not belong in Texas, but also believe that legal immigrants belong, and that both such beliefs are true.  But they cannot both be true.  It would seem then, from the vantage point of intellectual consistency, this action and reaction alike expose the right’s long-held position on immigration reform as one based in racial enmity disguised as a concern for the Rule of Law.  I’m not sure it will matter though, if no one cares about knowing, and only about believing.

Over the next few weeks we will cover different aspects of the immigration system, and whether we can know that something is, or is not, the “right thing to do.”  No side will be completely blameless in this discussion.  Diatribes ring hollow from those who are also complicit in inaction.  Most of the harshest accusations of immorality, after all, will come from career politicians from the left who have, over decades of woke compassionate public service, done nothing to better the plight of those they claim to care about.  But from all I’ve seen growing up on the border, and later practicing immigration law for 10 years, so many desperate people are being taken advantage of. Their plight gets worse and more desperate and we do not have a plan to fix it.  What is more, we do not appear care if we have one. We almost do not even want a plan. Because if we had a plan, if we fixed it, how will we raise money for the election? How can we scare people? How can we prove we are morally superior if we have to first admit our beliefs must be true to know the answer?  

If you are the one being talked about, not doing the talking (or the voting), there is little moral difference between Trump and Obama’s Congresses if neither one has helped you. The refugee crisis is not new, and it is not over.  Racism against Hispanics and Latinos is a serious problem, but it did not start with the shooting in El Paso, or with Trump, or Obama. We have a compassion problem, and a love of money problem too. Which is worse you might ask – to openly declare racial enmity for a group of people, or to vow to help that group, and then refuse to do so in order that one might have the opportunity to campaign again in 2 years on something solid? The ticket to re-election, after all, is not owning the solution, but owning the promise.  That I think, for the unaccompanied minors and families destroyed from excessive and pointless deportations, is a question of degree, not of culpability in general. 

Plans are complicated – a lot more complicated than making money off the backs of society’s most vulnerable by running for-profit prisons camps masquerading as shelters.  We are importing and exporting misery, and using it as a marketing tool. In the process, we have created a new form of slavery and slave trading. These illegal immigrants we banter about and judge live in our shadows – they have no rights, no recourse, and we get rich off their labor.  In the meantime, no one has made the line shorter, or made more lines. We sure do love $4.00 a pound organic strawberries though. No one on either primary stage has made you one iota safer, and no one has helped these poor people – these “least of these.” No one has even bothered to try.  Immigration reform is one of those things which is neither complex nor easy. But how we treat immigrants has an easy answer: we treat them as our neighbor, as we would want to be treated. Why? Because they are us. That is a belief, it is true, it is knowable, and can be justified rationally.

We have another belief we know to be true, that we like to say we arrived at after careful rational thought: that we all have God-given rights and that these rights do not come from government nor from our Constitution.  Rather these are our natural rights, and our Constitution merely enshrines them. America, we know, is great because it recognizes that concept.  There seems to be a new caveat however: non-Americans have fewer rights than we do. All animals are equal. Some animals are more equal than others.

These beliefs cannot be opposite each other and represent knowledge, because they cannot both be true, and cannot both be justified.  If you believe both of those things, you do not know anything at all about who belongs here.  Insofar as Texas has a governor who claims to be a Christian, but blocks refugee settlement – the settlement of LEGAL immigrants, we also can no longer pretend that we were ever really upset that they did not “Get In Line™ .”  We do not have to pretend we were only against illegal immigration, because it can no longer be said to be a true belief.  It is a dog whistle.  It always was. It was always a way to make some animals more equal than others, and we are not fooling anyone anymore. Except maybe, ourselves. 

Democrat Minorities Deserve Better, When Will the Party Learn?

Last year, we saw a record number of Democrats declare their candidacy to be the front runner for the Democratic presidential nomination. There was really no unity early on for what was going to be a long and grueling fight to become the 2020 nominee to face off against Donald J. Trump, our nations 45th President. 

A total of 28 candidates threw their hats in the ring. Yes, you read that right, 28! Of that 28, 22 were male and 6 were women. Of those 22 males, 5 identified as a minority (3 Black male candidates: Corey Booker – Senator from New Jersey, Deval Patrick – former governor of Massachusetts, and Wayne Messaum – former Mayor of Miramar, Florida; 1 Asian candidate: Andrew Yang – Entrepreneur, and 1 Hispanic candidate: Julian Castro – Congressman from Texas.). Of the 6 women, only 1 identified as a minority: Senator Kamala Harris from California. 

Today, only 1 minority top candidate remains, Andrew Yang. He is popular among millennial males and seems to care more about the next generations (millennials and xennials) more than any of his peers still in the race. There are 11 top candidates left, of whom 7 are White males with 3 are White females. Does anyone see a problem here? When you have a country that has one of the fastest-growing populations in the world of a single group of people (Hispanic men and women) growing at a rate of 60 million people in 2018 (Pew Research Center, 2019), you really must wonder if the Democratic candidates see what everyone else sees. Are they representative of the people?

Just a few weeks ago, Julian Castro, the only Hispanic candidate in the race dropped out and immediately put his support behind Elizabeth Warren. A noble effort maybe to position himself as her running mate should she be nominated or some other notable position in her cabinet should she win, time will tell why he decided to go this route.

Here we go again with another group of people vying for the highest office in the land that doesn’t look like the majority they represent. The mere fact that they still use the state of Iowa as the first voting poll to see what the rest of the country is going to do is outdated as well. At some point, the Democratic party needs to wake up and see that the methods that they’ve always used just aren’t cutting it anymore. With an impeachment going on, a man in office that could really care less about the pageantry that is the Presidency of the United States of America, and his supporters that hang on his every move (including Republican congressmen), you have to wonder what if anything the Democrats can do to regain control and push this country back in the direction of fair and balanced.

It is not too late to do any of that, but the old bait and switch routine of saying they care about minorities and then not supporting minority representation in the party is not only wrong but has to stop. The people who are tired of the wool being pulled over their eyes need to make up their mind and hold the candidates accountable.

The late Fannie Lou Hamer said it best, “I am sick and tired of being sick and tired.” 

Similar Read: The Demise of Kamala Harris, the Good, the Bad, and What’s Next

My Summary of the 7th Democratic Debate

My debate summary:

Sanders started out the strongest but started to fall back when it came to health care.

Biden started out the weakest but picked up when discussing foreign policy. He had an OK night.

While I’ve never been a fan of hers, Klobuchar had a solid night.

Buttigieg didn’t stand out at all and I still see him as manufactured, smug, and condescending. 

Warren made great points throughout but she lost it for me when the beef with Sanders came up. It made me think her camp concocted the Sanders smear so that she could go on stage to make her case on why women can win a presidential election. I didn’t like that. In previous debates, Warren acted as though she and Sanders were friends. Now she’s suddenly bringing up a supposedly old conversation? NOW she’s upset? I don’t get it and it feels disingenuous.

I don’t dislike Steyer.

If I had to choose the winner for this debate I’d say Klobuchar. Sanders and Warren follow in a tie for second place. Biden would be third and Buttigieg last. Buttigieg represents what I think a lot of people don’t like in politicians. On the other hand, some people love that he seems very “politician-y.” I’m torn on where to place Steyer. I could place him in first with Klobuchar or I could place him last with Buttigieg. Go figure.

I don’t think this debate will move any needles but then again, who knows! Maybe Buttigieg will drop? Maybe Steyer will get a boost? ??‍♀️ What happens on the ground is most important.

I don’t think the Warren-Sanders spat will do anything. From what I’ve seen, Sanders supporters feel Warren is lying and Warren supporters think Warren made a slam dunk on stage with her well-planned performance regarding their beef.

Although he gets the least bit of speaking time, Yang was definitely missed. Plus if you follow me you know he’s my #1 in this race.

I agree with Van Jones when he said this post-debate:

“Democrats have to do better than what we saw tonight. There was nothing I saw tonight that would be able to take Donald Trump out. And I want to see a Democrat in the White House as soon as possible… I came away feeling worried for the Democratic Party. It felt like a big bowl of cold oatmeal, and I got to say this: I missed Andrew Yang tonight.”  

When Brave Words Turn to Foolish Tragic Actions

We all started this new year with the perception that this decade would bring about change. For some, that change would be professional; for others, that change would be in the form of personal growth. For the world, many of us hoped that change would come from men and women who would be less trigger happy and more eager to have an open dialogue.

Unfortunately, we were not paying attention. Our first wakeup call came on January 3rd with the assassination of Qasem Soleimani. The Iran and U.S. divide spans decades, and to try and explain the entire conflict would be exhausting and possibly passionately rebuked from not just both sides of the aisle here, but also on a global scale. 

As I was once told long ago, truth is a matter of perception.

To sum up the current events in a neat bow, and bring you, the reader up to speed on what has taken place in the past three years, here is my take on the current battleground between Iran and the United States. 

Summary of  tensions:  

Since President Trump decided to pull out of the Iran deal in 2017, tensions have been mounting between the two nations, and it took on a more aggressive tone when Trump decided to impose severe sanctions against Iran. 

Since these sanctions were in place, both nations have taken political, and at times physical swipes at each other. One could call it, testing the “waters,” so to speak. 

From capturing an ally oil tanker to shooting down a probing U.S. drone, both nations have been continually pushing one another to a boiling point. 

That boiling point came to a head in Iraq. Right after Christmas, on December 27th, 2019. An American contractor was killed among other Iraqi military personnel by an Iranian backed militia group, Kataib Hezbollah, which the group denied any involvement with the attack. 

The U.S. then responded by attacking Iranian backed militias within the region, which resulted in Iraqi citizens storming and attacking the U.S. embassy in Iraq, breaching and damaging the outer perimeter. Though the Iraqi military stepped in to break up the protests, the damage was done, and unfortunately, a set of options were brought to Trump’s table. 

These options provide the president with a set of responses ranging from the extreme to the more reasonable appropriate actions that a wise leader would take.

The option that Trump picked was the extreme option, and that was assassinating Qasem Soleimani. 

Who is Qasem Soleimani?

Qasem Soleimani was an Iranian Major General and leader of the Quds forces of Iran. From his start in the military in 1988 to his death in 2020, Soleimani rose among the ranks in the Iranian army and ended up leading and controlling the extraterritorial military and clandestine operations in service to Iran. Towards the latter part of his life, Soleimani was considered the second most powerful individual in Iran, second only to Ayatollah Khamenei, and also being the Ayatollah’s right-hand man.  

To some, especially in the west, Soleimani was the leader of a shadowy organization that ran multiple militia groups in Syria and Iraq and was behind the deaths of many American troops. To others in Iran and its allies, Soleimani was considered a hero and legend. Someone that provided Iran with a barrier against all its enemies and a role model for all that knew him or served under him. 

Perception, to one group he was a monster that needed to be removed from the game board; to another group he was more than just a military general. 

Soleimani was a symbol. 

When the Pentagon learned that Soleimani would be in Iraq, a decision was made to kill him. On January 3rd, A U.S. sanctioned drone strike attacked Soleimanis’ vehicle and his entourage just outside the Baghdad International Airport, Killing Soleimani, and other essential figures within his group. 

This attack brought the U.S. and Iran dangerously close to World War 3. After the attack, Iran vowed for revenge, and for days, the world held it’s breath on what steps Iran would take to exact that revenge. 

On January 8th, the world had its answer when Iran attacked two Iraqi bases that held U.S. troops within its walls. Strategically missing everyone and only causing minimal damage to the stations. 

This attack was a way for Iran to save face and also send a clear message to Trump not to push their buttons. Unfortunately, as with any conflict, innocents end up paying the price for being caught in the middle. 

A Ukrainian civilian aircraft that flew too close to one of the Iranian military bases in the early hours of January 8th, was shot down by an officer who mistook the civilian aircraft for a U.S. military response. 

This tragedy was a shock to the world and to the nations that had its civilians on the airliner. For days, speculations were thrown as to how and what downed the airliner, until Iranian officials admitted to mistakenly shooting down the plane with missiles.

Looking at this new conflict at the dawn of a new decade, led me to contemplate how many countless issues similar to this current one also escalated to catastrophic levels… over impulsive decisions, brave words, and cries for bloody revenge. 

How much time have we had to put aside our differences? Whether those differences deride from religious beliefs or the pigment of one’s skin tone? How much time have we been given to know better? 

How much time have we been given to learn from our forefather’s mistakes and our past? When will we individually hold ourselves and those we elect to represent us on a global scale accountable? When does it end? The divide we set amongst ourselves that only hinders our evolution and deconstructs all the hard work our species has done thus far to advance us collectively?

2020 is a big year. A year that I hope none of us can hide behind falsehoods and half-truths anymore. 

A year where we will be held accountable for our actions, and if there is any justice in this universe, a year that Trump will exit his role as president and pave the way for someone else to stand center stage. 

Someone who values life over ego. 

Top Iranian General Killed, Immediate Reaction From Army Veteran

(An attack and murder of General Qassim Suleimani) in Baghdad, Iraq… I suppose if you’re going to do it, those are good conditions.

It’s a precarious place we’re in now.  If we knew that the embassy attack was managed from the top, the alternative would have been to let Iran think that it was ok… to assault US soil.  But it also forces Iran to either do something or eat it. I’m not sure they’re ready just to eat it, or take that loss, in laymen terms.

This is likely to escalate to open conflict.

I suppose the reason you do it this way is that if we can make the case that these guys managed the embassy assault, Russia will stay out of it.

I think we are fine with fighting Iran inside Iraq and Syria, so long as we aren’t in Iran and Russia doesn’t join.  China will also accept our word.  They won’t openly support us, but they’ll get it.

And as I think about it, this was about the best circumstance we could’ve asked for… to hit Iran hard without drawing other world powers to their side. 

If we aren’t trying to take over or topple Iran, we can fuck them up pretty badly; but this is going to be a big thing now.

And we are going to need Russia and China to stand down – and all the while we are making our case, they’re going to be saying on the surface that it’s a fake case just like the 2nd invasion of Iraq was a fake case.

Overall, it’s probably good for asserting ourselves in the Middle East.  Good for asserting ourselves as strong to Putin, and OK with China because we just inked that phase 1 deal last week. 

I would guess had we not inked and announced the deal with China, this attack wouldn’t have happened.

I understand there are a lot of troops at Fort Drum and Fort Bragg that were given mobilization orders this morning. I don’t know the number, but based on the people getting called it would be between 10,000 and 40,000. That’s a shit ton of people given that we are currently under 5,000 troops in Iraq.

Similar Read: Syria Will Be Part of Trump’s Legacy – But History’s Judgement Is Still Unclear

The Trump Doctrine: What Ukraine Says About Trump’s Foreign Policy

One of the biggest stories of 2019…  

In the latest episode of The D.C. Apprentice reality show, we unpeeled another layer of the onion that is the Trump Doctrine. Whether it’s Brexit, Afghanistan, Jamal Khashoggi, summits with North Korea, tariffs and trade deals, Putin, and now, Ukraine, we bear witness to a convoluted set of policies without specific details and a heavy emphasis on maximizing publicity and attention. Trump’s foreign policy is based on minimizing or eliminating long-term military engagements, renegotiating agreements that play into his deal-making reputation, and provoking diplomatic altercations that further establish Trump as the Commander-in-Chief of Red State America.

Trump vocally embraces the paleoconservative philosophy championed by Patrick Buchanan, Steve Bannon, Lou Dobbs, and numerous contributors to Fox News and Breitbart News. It embraces traditional social positions and nationalism while strongly opposing trade agreements, immigration, and international organizations. It also has a strong isolationist influence that opposes military interventions. Between the trade wars, ICE raids, border wall funding, immigration and asylum reductions, NATO criticisms, and troop withdrawals in Afghanistan, Trump is reliably committed to Paleoconservative orthodoxies. 

Trump’s reputation as a deal-making businessman from his real estate business in New York to his TV show to his book, ‘The Art of the Deal,’ is built on maximizing publicity by making grandiose, must-see-tv gestures that consumes all oxygen from other competitors. Whether it’s the summits with the North Korean dictator, renegotiating NAFTA, and imposing tariffs on trading partners like China, Trump uses each opportunity and/or manufactured diplomatic crisis to further burnish his perceived deal-making reputation. 

Perhaps most importantly, Trump’s foreign policy is dependent on cementing his status as the Commander-in-Chief of red-state America. The President has gone all-in on being the war-time commander in the new cold war between red and blue America. Withdrawing from the Paris climate treaty is the perfect example. The trade wars with Mexico and China appeals to the rural working-class voters in Midwest and Southern states who see their manufacturing tradition threatened by globalization. Trump’s coalition swapped out college-educated middle-class voters in suburban counties for working-class voters in rural areas. He relishes any attack from blue-state America because it further establishes his war-time credentials with red-state America. Therefore, the Ukraine news only solidifies his support from his fans. In the mind of his supporters, they are at war, and all is fair in love and war. That might seem drastic, but his supporters love that there is no line he won’t cross to defend them against their enemy. Trump has nearly 3 years of history proving himself to his supporters that he will fight every fight that they believe his predecessors were too weak to engage, and this is no different.

This article was originally published on 27 September 2019.

Reflections on Paul Volcker’s Memoir: Keeping At It

I used my travel time over the holidays to finally get through Paul Volcker’s memoirs, pushed to the top of my list by his passing.  I suppose I’m happy for the window into how he positioned his career, but it affirms him as one of my longtime least-revered great influencers of the past 50 years.

Growing up as a country kid in the worst of the farm crisis, my family farm was collateral damage of his battle against inflation.  I read his book looking for better understanding and condolence and found none.

His annoyance at Congress for formalizing the dual mandate of the Fed to manage unemployment as well as inflation… his distrust of econometrics… his willingness to label any alternative views or level of appropriate inflation as harmful or outright corrupt in its intent- down to saying one of the reasons he left Princeton was “the unfortunate modern practice of allowing students to rate their professors.”  Throughout his career, there was no ability in him to humanize those in the real world or to consider the reality that everything on earth doesn’t fit neatly into little boxes and charts, and that sometimes one can be in need of others’ views.

There was an important role for discipline- for fighting corruption in the financial system and globally, and for that he was useful to the country; but he did his best work for the UN, the IMF and the World Bank where he was able to sort and investigate, but unable to subject the world to his myopic worldview unabated.

There’s a need for someone as he says, “to take the punchbowl away just as the party gets going,” but he didn’t need to revel in it so completely, and should have been more thoughtful – if only in hindsight- to the possibility that the economy could have recovered with less damage had he been able to see better down from his great tower.

The Conservative Argument AGAINST Trump’s Border Wall

One of the biggest stories of 2019… 

There is no political topic that captures the imagination of today’s voter like Trump’s proposed border wall.  This issue encapsulates national security, humanitarian, economic concerns, and it exploits the hyperpolarization of the rank and file members of both political parties. This issue is THE reason for the longest government shutdown in US history, and at the time of this writing, there is no compromise in sight. In this political stalemate, the only way to move the needle is to look deeper into the issue to see what the actual issue is, and if the taken positions are consistent with the fundamental principles of their ideology and party affiliation. As a lifelong Republican with an engineering background, after crunching the numbers and taking into perspective the number of diversions from bedrock conservative ideals, this border wall and the process it includes is the antithesis of sound conservative policy. The proposed wall is not fiscally responsible, infringes on private property rights through eminent domain, and does not significantly improve national security.

Using my professional background, and my background in engineering costs, I identified these significant expenses: 1. Property value of acquired land… 2. Legal fees for obtaining land through eminent domain… 3. Material costs for a 25 ft steel wall… 4. 2 ft foundation… 5. Labor costs… 6. Permitting fees… 7… Installation of service road for construction, maintenance, and transportation of border patrol vehicles and equipment… 8. Engineering fees, and… 9. Miscellaneous fees and expenses. While there are other expenses like water rights for farmers along the Rio Grande River, and potential litigation issues from a treaty with Mexico regarding these water rights, I am keeping my focus on these items because the process time and costs are significant.

  1. Property Values: Most land along the border is private property. I will assume 75% of the land is private property, a cost of $3,000 per acre (value is likely higher, but once land is condemned for seizure, the value drops significantly), and a 150 ft-wide right-of-way to hold the wall, service road, and any other facilities. Roadway right-of-way varies on size of the road. Typically, it is in the 60-80’ range (300+ for interstates and major highways), but since there will be utility and drainage installations in this right-of-way in lieu of additional easements, I am combining it into one. Total Cost = $75 billion. Total Time to Acquire = 12-18 months to notify property owner & 3-10 years to resolve through federal courts.
  2. Legal fees: This is roughly a third of the total property value based on other federal eminent domain cases. Total Cost = $25 billion. Time to Resolve = 3-10 years.
  3. Material Costs for 25 ft steel wall: Trump has signaled he is willing to compromise from concrete to steel. Assuming the wall height is 25 feet and a unit cost of $7/SF, the Total Cost = $2 billion. Time to Build = 125 miles/year or 14 years.
  4. Foundation Costs for a 2 ft foundation: Assuming a foundation height of 2 ft (typical for a structure of this height) and a unit cost of $10/SF, the Total Cost = $170 million. 
  5. Labor Costs: Labor costs tend to be 40-60% of total expense when combined with materials. Total Cost = $2 billion. 
  6. Permitting Fees: Permitting expenses tend to be 2-3% of total construction costs, depending on location. Permit fees within city limits could be significantly higher because fees are likely based on the total value of the property’s or structure’s value, but for this exercise, we will keep it to materials and labor costs. Total Cost = $100 million. 
  7. Service Road Installation: Service roadways will need to be installed to transport contractors and materials to install the wall. These roadways will be used by maintenance crews as well as transportation means for border patrol agents on duty. Typical costs for 2 lane roads is $3 million per mile. Total cost = $5 billion.
  8. Engineering Fees: typical 2.5-3% of total costs, including property acquisitions. Total cost = $3 billion. 
  9. Miscellaneous fees: On most engineering cost estimates, there is a 10% contingency item that covers additional engineering fees, change order requests, and any other expenses that are anticipated, but the final cost is not known. Total Cost = $10 billion.

When you include a 10% contingency fee to account for miscellaneous or unforeseen expenses, which is custom in most engineering cost estimates, the total cost for this wall, assuming a best-case scenario, is in the $120-125 billion range with a likely completion date in 2029. Trump’s request for $5.7 billion is a small down payment on a costly construction project.

The most expensive part of this endeavor will be the seizure of privately-owned lands through eminent domain. Will Hurd, a former CIA security officer and Congressman of the district with the longest stretch of border in the country, stated there are approximately 1,000 private property owners with land along the border in Texas alone. These properties have been owned by families for multiple generations that will be forcibly taken from them by the federal government at a rate the government arbitrarily sets against their wishes. Historically, eminent domain, particularly the excessive use of it, has been a galvanizing issue for Conservatives. Taking one’s property against their will, particularly after the 2005 Kelo vs City of New London Supreme Court Case, prompted state legislatures in red states to pass legislation to reign in or outright prohibit the use of eminent domain in all or rare cases. The number of potential court cases that will occur could effectively shut down federal courts in District 5 (Texas), 9 (Arizona and California) and 10 (New Mexico).

The central argument made for the wall is the impact it will have on national security. This structure is supposed to make significant reductions in the number of illegal immigrants in our country. This week, the Center for Migration Studies released a study analyzing the numbers reported by the federal government and found that 62% of illegal immigrants are people who came here legally and overstayed their temporary or student visas. This has been the trend for the past seven years. Most illegal crossings occur at busy checkpoints or ports, not in isolated locations because there are not means of transportation available. Cartels have perfected the art of smuggling through these checkpoints and have made them a focus of their operations. They have also built numerous tunnels under the border that a wall would not impede. This means the people our national security departments are most concerned about will not be impacted by this wall. Creating the illusion of security is not the same as actual security.

This wall requires supporters to embrace a fiscally irresponsible purchase and revoke their bedrock defense of private property rights for a physical structure that has negligible benefit for national security. Wall supporters might have other, some might say sinister, reasons for supporting this issue, but it is not a conservative one.

This article was originally published on 22 January 2019.

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Nobody Is Above The Law… Impeachment

The night before only the 3rd vote in US history to impeach a sitting president, New Yorkers gathered in Time Square to chant, “Nobody is above the law.” Nobody… surprisingly a point of contention considering some would argue that doesn’t include the highest office in the land, Commander-in-Chief, 45th president of the United States, Donald J. Trump.

Following the Civil War in 1868, Andrew Johnson became the first president in US history to be impeached. Nearly 150 years later, Bill Clinton become the second. And with the exception of some unforeseen wild event, Donald Trump will become the third. A shame for Donald Trump considering he survived the Mueller investigation, only to get caught up in a quid pro quo regarding his attempt to pressure Ukraine’s leaders to dig up dirt on Hunter Biden and his father, senior statesman and Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden.

(Sidenote: Hunter Biden sat on the board of directors for Burisma, a Ukraine-based energy holding company from 2014 to 2019 while his father, Joe Biden, who was Vice President at the time, oversaw policy regarding the Eastern European nation. Hunter had no experience in Ukraine nor did he have a background in the energy sector. While it’s not illegal, him having a paid board seat on the other side of the world is bizarre, it doesn’t add up, and should be questioned.)

I digress… back to US presidential history…

It’s important to note that while Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton have both been formally impeached, neither of them were removed from office through impeachment. And neither will Donald Trump. While the House of Representatives have more than enough votes to impeach him, the Senate does not. Nevertheless, Trump felt the need to write a 6-page rant disguised as a letter to Nancy Pelosi where he exclaimed, “More due process was afforded to those accused in the Salem Witch Trials.”

6 pages of that…

Nearly a year from the 2020 elections, how will this impact the electorate? Specifically independents and voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania… three states which all went blue for the previous 6 presidential elections before 2016.

Will it even matter? Or more importantly, which Dem will capitalize on this historic moment, win the nomination and carry that momentum to the general election?

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A Trillion Dollars in Afghanistan… So How Did We Fix This?

On December 9, 2019, the Washington Post published documents detailing how for nearly two decades the US spent nearly a trillion dollars in Afghanistan (please note, this doesn’t include Iraq). So how do we fix this?

Let’s not use this piece to discuss current political fights on being unable to afford health care for all of us or why we cant relieve student debt or the current reduction to SNAP recipients.

Today we will look at talks that have gone on in the military since the conflict began. Once, Afghanistan was referred to as America’s forgotten war as Iraq stole the headlines. In the year 2004, I was preparing to be a military officer by 2006. The concern of classmates then was, “how can we lead and train troops who saw combat while we are only studying now and the wars would be done?” Little did we know…

Since the wars have gone on, the talk was always this isn’t a single war, but the explanation you would get in honest informal talk was these were 6, 9, 12, 15 or God forbid 18-month wars. Once a new unit came in, they had their way of doing operations and what was previously done would be forgotten. And if I’m being totally honest, I was guilty of it to. Whether in Iraq or Afghanistan, in both places I was apart of our predecessors are jacked up and our replacements don’t get it yet.

In combat, you have three fights. In simple terms, there is the tactical fight, the operational fight and the strategic fight. Tactically, force vs force and owning a geographical area, I bet on us any day. Even operationally, our military will is undeniable. Then you get to this thing called the strategic fight and this is where it gets murky.

So how do we fix this?

I had a Sergeant Major who I considered a teacher tell me to ask two questions; what’s next, and who needs to know? Tactically and operationally, this is not so difficult, but strategically, that is a bigger problem. Now, I ask you to match that problem with a military system that frowns if you say “I don’t know.” Imagine a system that your evaluations and career depends on producing results and showing gains towards a desired goal. Imagine leaders who are convinced beforehand they know the problem and answer (hint: it leads to cherry-picking data).

So how do we fix this?

In the military, we have this concept we call a self-licking ice cream cone. The data pulled can tell any story you want (and often a favorable progressing story is told); but in Afghanistan, nearing two decades and a trillion dollars, the story told is extremely complicated.

So how do we fix this?

Again, that’s complicated. We all know someone who served but really, only 1% of the population serves, so there is an extreme disconnect and lack of ownership and/or true investment.

Strategically, saying have one strategy and sticking to it sounds good, but in combat, variables are fluid and can change instantly, there is no one size fits all. You need to know your objective and accomplish this BEFORE variables change, BUT the enemy ALWAYS has a vote as does other regional and global actors.

So how do we fix this, and importantly, how do we prevent this you ask? It’ll take a nation as a whole. Not every war is Desert Shield/Desert Storm where ground operations are done in under 100 hours. That is part of the problem.

I want you to think back… When have you ever heard, “this war will be long, operations will be tough, we’re going to spend trillions and your kids not yet born will one day be fighting this same war.” The answer is never… we always here how it will be business as usual and the political proclamations made publicly are held up by the military and championed by the press.

So how do we fix this? Next time conflict arises, don’t cheerlead. Ask those tough questions to leaders and the press. If misled hold those leaders accountable, but also know if our leadership changes, that’s a variable change that also may affect our actions…. so I leave you with one question, so how do we fix this?

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