Iran: What Comes Next?

by with One Comment FeaturedGen ZGlobalInternational

On May 8, President Donald Trump took perhaps the most consequential foreign policy action of his presidency thus far and announced that the United States would be withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), more commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal. Despite the fact that Iran has verifiably been compliant with the terms of the agreement, President Trump has repeatedly characterized it as a “bad deal” and the promise to withdraw the United States from it was a central pillar of his campaign. Although it fulfills the President’s campaign promise, American withdrawal from the JCPOA is comprising international security, regional stability, and the United States’ role in the international arena.  

European allies including France and Germany had spent the past several months working to convince the administration to stay a part of the deal and have made their displeasure with this development clear, indicating that they will do what they can to save the deal without the United States. This is no small task and many European diplomats have admitted that it would be exceedingly difficult. The EU does have the option of imposing retaliatory sanctions to shield European businesses or having the European Central Bank invest directly in Iran, although given the strength and pervasiveness of the American financial system it is unlikely that this would be enough to maintain the deal’s benefits for Iran. Regardless a signal has been sent to our European partners that they cannot rely on the United States to display the international leadership they once did.

If and when it becomes clear that Iran will not achieve the economic benefits that the deal promised it is highly probable that they will resume their nuclear program. Hardliners within Iran will take this opportunity to make the case that diplomacy is futile and future agreements will become increasingly difficult. At the same time, the country’s more moderate President, Hassan Rouhani, will likely see his influence weakened. As the Iranian economy, which has already been suffering from unrelated US sanctions, continues to get worse, it is average Iranian citizens who will bear the brunt of the sanctions. This could lead to a degree of social unrest, although any protests are likely to get cracked down upon early and hard.

If Iran does reinstate its nuclear program it will be much harder to once again put together the international sanctions regime that brought Iran to the negotiating table to begin with. Sanctions against the Iranian regime were effective when the international community worked as a united front. Unilateral US sanctions are likely to have a substantially smaller impact on the regime’s actions. Many of the most effective US sanctions, known as “secondary sanctions” or sanctions, levied not on the Iranian regime directly but on parties doing business with Iran. The reimposition of these sanctions is likely to have the greatest impact as they will act as a significant deterrent to European businesses who were quick to begin doing business in the country after the sanctions were lifted. It will also impact American firms, such as Boeing which had a large deal in place to supply airplane parts to Iran’s civil airline.  

What will most likely happen?

The US sanctions will be enough to prevent Iran from getting the benefits of the nuclear deal, thereby causing the deal to fall apart, but not enough to curb its activities in the region.

Refusing to stick to the accords doesn’t just increase the likelihood that Iran will end up with a nuclear weapon in the near term, it also sets a bad precedent and undermines faith in the United States with regards to future international negotiations. This is especially pertinent considering the upcoming summit with North Korea. The deal that is reportedly being offered to Kim Jong-Un, economic relief in exchange for the cessation of the country’s nuclear program, is similar to the one that the Trump administration is now reneging on with Iran. If the US has proven itself unable to stick to a deal once agreed upon with Iran, why would the North Koreans expect to be treated any differently?

Regardless of what one thinks of the administration’s withdrawal from the deal, it happened. The question now is what’s next?

At the end of his speech announcing the American withdrawal, President Trump expressed a willingness to renegotiate the deal. There is however little indication of what the administration would hope to gain by doing so. In fact, the administration seems to have no clear strategy on the issue. The vague normative statements, half-truths, and political chest-thumping that have characterized the President’s comments on the issue are not enough. If regional and international security is to be maintained, it is essential that the administration has a clear strategy for how to handle Iran in both the near and long-term. 

Korean Reunification Will Never Work, and Here’s Why

by with No Comment FeaturedGlobal

In response to Trump Succeeds Where Obama Did Not

I have great hope for the upcoming talks with North Korea, and I agree that the tone and setting are different than they’ve ever been before.  That said, while there is a possibility of everyone getting what they want (and thus currently a sense of great optimism in the possibility by all sides, and a thrust of welcoming outreach as each party sets up for the talks), there remain quite a few conflicting, zero-sum core objectives that are likely to color the actual talks and their ultimate impact.

First among these is reunification itself.  While reunification is a North and South objective, “reunification” looks very different in the minds of the two heads of state.  These two nations remain at war because each of their governments is unwilling to not be the surviving entity.  Further, reunification is China’s worst outcome.  China is at times uncomfortable with the DPRK and sees a nuclear North as problematic, but ultimately, their needs are best met by having a divided Korea and a buffer state between China and US-aligned South Korea.  North Korea is unlikely to re-align with the West regardless of North/South relations, and is unlikely to open itself up much at all.

Northern power is based on their own narrative and control of information.  Strict adherence to this policy has given the Kim dynasty firm control over a starving population.  Family reunification on any meaningful scale is likely to provide an infection of truth that might well topple their hold on the hearts and minds of the North Korean people.  As such, hopes of reunification (even among families) seems hard to imagine.

Additionally, we have come to this place precisely because the DPRK is on the brink of developing a nuclear missile that can hit the US mainland.  This attention and recognition was precisely the DPRK’s objective in building this weapon, and when the talks are over and the DPRK improves its situation from desperately starving to abject poverty through foreign aid, they are likely to realize once again that their best alternative is to tear up any nuclear concessions and go back to threatening the world with nuclear weapons.

What worries me is the only end to this loop is a sub-optimal outcome nearly everyone in the region.  Imagine a world where the DPRK after successful agreements violates those concessions and returns to weapon production.  The US strikes a deal with China that the US will destroy the weapons sites with force, but will allow China (not South Korea) to enter.  South Korea bears the brunt of a conventional artillery barrage, but repels a DPRK advance – but at great loss of life.  North Korea becomes either part of China proper or a puppet vassal state, likely ending the prospect of Korean reunification for at least the next 100 years.  In order to gain China’s acquiescence, the US would likely have to agree to cede our heavy presence in the Pacific – greatly reducing the US footprint on land and water, and likely leaving South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and Japan to deal with China as the unequivocal regional hegemon.

And Trump may well like that deal.  It protects the US from a nuclear threat (America first), moves the US back from our global posture (which he has said from the start is among his objectives), and in exchange for the US conceding regional hegemony to China (which he and many others see as merely a realistic eventuality), he is likely to get strong trade concessions that will benefit US industry in the short term.  In the thousand year sense, China also likes that deal – with the US gone from the region, they return to their rightful place atop the Asian region- achieved through negotiations, money and Korean (not Chinese) blood.

So while all of that is good for the US and China, it may be a bit early to start handing out Nobel Prizes.  The Trump/Xi version of Realpolitik is more likely to look like it did in the Franco-Prussian era- like two great powers carving out their spheres of influence.  Perhaps I’m wrong.  But we will see…

Trump Succeeds Where Obama Did Not?

by with 4 Comments FeaturedInternationalPolitics

The North Korean state media hailed a meeting between its leader and South Korea’s president as a “new milestone.” Momentous decisions took place at this meeting, one of them is to end the Korean War formally, and another being to make the Korean peninsula nuclear-free. 

South Korean’s news agency Yonhap reported on Saturday that both Pyongyang and Seoul “affirm the common goal of realizing a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula through complete denuclearization.”

On the opposite side of the border, North Korea’s Central News Agency (KCNA) also said that the summit would mark the way for “a new era of peace and prosperity.”

To cement these substantial declarations, the leaders of the two Koreas signed a joint statement after a historic summit that saw Kim Jong-un become the first North Korean leader to step into South Korea since the end of the Korean War in 1953.

A day of choreographed talks and symbolic gestures gave way to some unscripted spontaneity when Kim asked his South Korean counterpart to reciprocate by briefly stepping into North Korea.

The signing of the declaration came after two rounds of discussions between the leaders, as well as a symbolic tree-planting ceremony to bring about peace and prosperity on the split peninsula.

What does this all mean?

North Korea and South Korea have had talks before, have made pledges before and have also committed to peace previously, and none of it lasted. What makes this time different?

Here is a brief look at the sanctions (see fig. 1) and the reasons behind them. This new agreement would help Kim Jong-un remove some if not most of these sanctions and benefit from if the deal between South Korea, United States, and China goes through. 

Sanctions Against North Korea 

Year Action Sanction
Dec – 1985 DPRK ratifies the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
Jan – 2003 DPRK withdraws from NPT
Oct – 2006 UN Security Council (UNSC) passes resolution 1718 condemning the country’s first nuclear test and imposing sanctions on DPRK, including the supply of heavy weaponry, missile technology, material, and select luxury goods.
June – 2008 DPRK declares its nuclear programs to China and commits to shutting down parts of its Yongbyon nuclear facilities
June – 2009 UNSC adopts Resolution 1874, which strengthens against DPRK after it conducted its second nuclear explosion test.
Dec – 2011 North Korean leader Kim Jong-il dies after seventeen years in power. His son Kim Jong-un takes over
Jan – 2013 UNSC passes Resolution 2087 condemning DPRK 2012 satellite launch and proliferation activities.
Mar – 2013 UNSC passes Resolution 2094 imposing harsher sanctions in response to DPRK’s third nuclear test in a month prior
March – 2016 UNSC adopts Resolution 2270 condemning DPRK’s fourth nuclear test and its 2015 submarine-launched missile test. Sanctions are enhanced, including banning states from supplying aviation fuel to DPRK.
Nov – 2016 UNSC passes Resolution 2321 expanding sanctions after DPRK’s fifth nuclear test, including a ban on mineral exports such as copper and nickel, and the selling of statues and helicopters.
Aug – 2017 UNSC adopts Resolution 2371 boosting sanctions after DPRK’s two intercontinental ballistic missile tests in July, including a ban on coal and iron exports.
Sept – 2017 UNSC unanimously passes Resolution 2375 to ratchet up sanctions following DPRK’s sixth and largest nuclear test.
Dec – 2017 UNSC passes Resolution 2397 imposing new restrictions on oil imports, as well as metal, agricultural, and labor exports.

(Figure 1. Chronology of International action against the rogue state Eleanor A. (2018). What to know about the sanctions on North Korea. Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-know-about-sanctions-north-korea.)

These sanctions have been crushing to the economic stability and prosperity of North Korea. So the reason to come to the table now and push to make these promises stick this time is actually quite simple. Kim Jong-un wants to improve North Korea, and mutually the leaders of both Korea’s realize that there is more strength in unity than there is to remain split apart and to have outside influences use the “divide and conquer strategy” to get what they want and foster distrust and hatred to continue the vicious cycle.

This summit is good news. Having a joint Korea (or something close to it), will help the North become stable and less aggressive to the world. It will also open up borders for trade and commerce to flow once again while allowing peace and security to reach all its neighbors without fear of turning back. For the South, it will allow families who have been split for decades to finally reunite and remove threats to their stability and growth.

All that remains now is to see how these talks will fare with Donald Trump when he meet’s with Kim later this year. South Korean President Moon Jae-in has suggested that Trump should receive the Nobel Peace Prize should the matters of their talks come to fruition. We have yet to see how all of these recent developments stand with our President, and if he wants to truly make a positive difference. One thing for sure, time will tell fast.

Denuclearization is a milestone worthy of applause… but who deserves the applause?

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Hurricane Trump

by with No Comment Uncategorized
The last 10 months of the Trump Administration have been fraught with upheaval, uncertainty, and unpreparedness. It’s one thing to have a president who doesn’t know what he’s doing; it’s quite another to have a president who doesn’t know what he’s doing and sabotages the efforts of the people who do.
Trump is the enemy who doesn’t realize he is the enemy. Blustering his way around the White House, the country and the world, he seeks only his own glorification, and is oblivious to the damage he inflicts while doing so. His extreme self-centeredness is not unlike that of Kim Jong Un, another self-centered narcissist who just happens to be the leader of a country with nuclear capability. And he is not afraid to flaunt it.
Trump’s dismantling of the Paris Accord, the multiple efforts at dismantling the Affordable Care Act, the ham-fisted attempts at diplomacy and as “comforter-in-chief” – all of this pales in comparison to the very real threat he has become.
De-certifying the Iran nuclear deal takes the cards out of the hands of all of the countries supporting it, and into the hands of the Iranian government in one swipe. Sanctions will take its place, which will produce the opposite effect intended. Iran will find a way to work around those sanctions and step up its uranium production.
Ladies and gentlemen, we now have a trifecta of nukes. 
Playing one-upmanship games with North Korea, while his top diplomat is trying to calm the waters, is proof positive that the US president has no understanding of the world. He is crippling any attempt to prevent a conflict, merely because he wants to be right.
This childish chest-beating between Trump and Kim is likely to escalate now that the Iran deal is slotted for dismantling – because there will be a third player in this dangerous triad. John Kelly, brought in to try to rein in Trump’s disastrous behavior, is not likely to have much, if any, effect on how Trump plays his games. Believing that anyone can control such an uncontrollable force might as well try to stop a hurricane. 
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Stop Traveling To Bad Places

by with One Comment FeaturedGlobal

The death of Otto Wambier a few weeks ago is truly a tragedy for America, but it was preventable.  The US State Dept. offers an extensive warning against travel to the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea), which as it happens is about the least democratic country on the face of the earth.  That warning by the State Dept. is there because since 1996, at least 16 Americans, 1 Australian and 1 Canadian have been detained in the DPRK for “crimes” such as going short distances from their hotel without approval, taking photos of innocuous things without permission and bringing Bibles into the country in their bags.  Additionally, as the DPRK still recognizes only a cease-fire, it still considers itself in a state of active war with the US, and tries any US citizen under “wartime law”.  That may not be any worse actually than what they do to anyone else, but it should be enough to reinforce that it’s not a good idea to go there.

 One thing many people forget while living safely within the United States, where rights are guaranteed, is how different that is from most of human history and even large swaths of the World today.  Americans have no rights in the DPRK because no one has rights in the DPRK- even (and actually especially) the country’s own citizens.  According to multiple reputable media sources, Kim Jong Un fed his uncle to 120 dogs that had not eaten for 3 days in front of 300 senior officials in a process that lasted for about an hour.

 The US has numerous issues in dealing with the DPRK.  In addition to their regular and barbarous treatment of their own citizens, they continue to use any and all available resources toward the production of arms and particularly nuclear weapons, which they have now shown can reach all of Japan and likely parts of the US.  Despite nearly infinite sanctions against the country, and substantial sanctions against foreign governments providing aid to the country, they persist.  But as the DPRK is still armed with nuclear weapons and crazy, the US has never attempted an armed rescue of US citizens, which would be very likely to result in the deaths of all the prisoners before they could be reached, and re-start shelling (and a possible nuclear attack) on South Korea, Japan or possibly even the US.  In 2009, Bill Clinton was able to negotiate the release of two US citizens by traveling to the country personally.  This only accelerated the pace of the DPRK taking US citizens.  Ostensibly to repeat the media event of Bill Clinton in Pyongyang, 13 of the 16 citizens mentioned above were taken after Clinton’s visit.

 So the lesson for most of us should be don’t go there.  It’s a bad place- and there are bad places left in the World.  Perhaps the first and second citizens could have thought it might work out okay, but the 17th should be pretty sure that it might not.  And if you do go there, evidence has shown that the US government making a big deal out of getting you out leads to more people taken.  Over time, that means that the likelihood of the next person to enter being taken for “crimes” is exponentially higher than the last person who left, and the likelihood of the US government being able to come get you becomes substantially lower.

 Further, it side tracks what the US is able to do with regard to managing China- sometimes side-tracking half of the discussion time that could be used to discuss nuclearization of the Korean peninsula, kidnapping of Japanese fishermen and missiles fired over Japanese airspace with discussions about getting back a US citizen who thought this would be the “tourist trip of a lifetime”.

There is evil still in the World- and a lot of it is there.  Our country will do what it can for you and should continue to do so, but individual judgment is still an individual responsibility, and if you choose to enter the lion’s den, don’t be surprised at the consequences.